The EURUSD surged to its highest level since February 2022 on Friday, reaching a peak of 1.1473. That high came up just short of the key resistance zone between 1.1482和1.1516—a swing area that capped gains in early 2022. After failing to break that ceiling, the pair rotated lower, finding support at a critical confluence of technical levels.

Friday’s pullback bottomed at 1.12738, a zone packed with significance. That level sits just above the 38.2%回撤位 of last week’s strong rally at 1.12495, and more importantly, aligns with both the 2023年7月高点1.1275 and the 2020-2022年全年跌幅61.8%回撤1.1270. This 1.1270-1.1275支持区域至关重要. Holding above it keeps the short-term bullish bias intact. Break below, and sellers may start to build confidence, especially if the price slips further beneath the 38.2% retracement on the hourly chart.

Buyers and sellers are clearly locked in a tug-of-war near these elevated levels. However, the 更广泛的技术偏向仍然倾向于多头. Last week’s breakout pushed the pair above the July 2023 high, and that level continues to act as a floor. For sellers to truly seize control, they must break—and hold—below the 1.1270-1.1275区. Until then, the technical advantage remains with the buyers.