The USDCAD began the week near its lowest level since mid-December. After an early rebound, the pair moved above the falling 100-小时均线 (blue line) on Wednesday, extending gains toward the 200-小时均线 (green line) on both Wednesday and Thursday. However, sellers defended the 200-小时MA, leading to a decline alongside broader 美元疲弱 on Thursday.

By the session close on Thursday, USDCAD had fallen below the 100-小时MA（蓝线）, reinforcing a bearish bias.

Today,the pair attempted a modest recovery but stalled near the 100-小时MA during the European session currenly at 1.41968, failing to generate upside momentum.

Stronger-than-expected 加拿大零售数据 pressured the pair lower, bringing focus back to key support at 1.4158 (weekly low) and 1.4150 (last Friday’s low). The latest low in the 北美时段 reached 1.4172.

For buyers to regain confidence, USDCAD must 突破100小时平均水平, with the 200-小时MA为1.4221 acting as a crucial resistance level. Without a move above these levels, 卖家仍处于控制之中.