The AUDUSD is once again flirting with its 100-day moving average, currently near 0.62917, and the risk is that history repeats. The last two breaks above this key technical level failed to hold, both stalling at 0.6390 before rotating back lower. Today’s attempt showed even less momentum, with the high reaching just 0.6340 before sellers leaned in and the pair reversed.

If the pair can't hold above the 100-day MA, attention will shift back toward downside support targets. The first is the 200-小时移动平均线0.6259, followed by the 100-小时移动平均线报0.6220. A move below both would confirm that the recent break was another false start—and place sellers firmly back in control.

技术状况仍然不稳定。买家不仅需要突破100日均线，还需要维持其上方的势头。否则，偏见将继续看跌，澳元兑美元可能会“再次出现”。

关键级别：

• 阻力： 0.62917 (100-day MA), 0.6340, 0.6390

• 支持： 0.6259 (200-hour MA), 0.6220 (100-hour MA)