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“解放日”后美元大幅走低。哪些技术因素推动了主要货币对

“解放日”关税后,美元兑欧元兑日元、美元兑日元和英镑兑美元大幅走低。作为回顾,以下是欧盟、日元和英镑当前的新关税观点。

“解放日”关税后,美元兑欧元兑美元、美元兑日元和英镑兑美元大幅走低。以下是欧盟、日元和英镑目前的新关税观点,

欧洲联盟(EU):

  • 基准关税: A 10% tariff was imposed on all foreign imports

  • 互惠关税:An additional 20% tariff was applied specifically to EU imports, bringing the total to 30%.

  • 钢铁和铝: A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from the EU took effect on March 12, 2025. ​

日本进口商品关税:

  • 基准关税: A universal 10% tariff on all imports was introduced, effective April 5, 2025.

  • 互惠关税: An additional 24% tariff was imposed specifically on Japanese imports, bringing the total to 34%. This higher rate was scheduled to take effect on April 9, 2025.

  • 汽车进口:Separately, a 25% tariff on all automobile imports, including those from Japan, took effect on April 3, 2025.

英国(UK):

  • 基准关税: The UK faced the general 10% tariff on all imports.​

  • 互惠关税:Unlike the EU, the UK was spared additional reciprocal tariffs due to strategic negotiations post-Brexit.

  • 钢铁和铝: Despite previous exemptions, a 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum imports was imposed, effective March 12, 2025.

仅供参考,美国十大贸易伙伴:

  • 墨西哥: 14.5%​

  • 加拿大: 13.5%​

  • 中国: 10.7%​

  • 瑞士: 5.3%​

  • 德国: 4.1%​

  • 日本: 3.9%​

  • 韩国: 3.3%​

  • 爱尔兰: 3.1%​

  • 台湾: 3.0%​

  • 越南: 2.9%

市场的反应是美国股市大幅下跌、收益率下降和美元贬值(这使得美国出口产品在国外更便宜,同时使贸易伙伴的商品更贵)

归根结底,有哪些选择?

  • 贸易伙伴可以减少贸易壁垒(关税、补贴)。据推测,美国不会征收关税
  • 贸易伙伴可以在美国生产并在美国销售这些产品。对美国生产的商品不征收关税。我想知道如果丰田在美国生产Rave 4,但在日本生产普锐斯会发生什么。那么关税结构有什么作用呢?

此外,如果普锐斯(日本制造)价格上涨25%,而我想要一辆来自国内生产商的类似汽车,那么美国制造的同等汽车的价格是否会降低25%(或类似的东西),或者美国生产商是否会提高价格以具有“竞争力”(在上层)与更高的普锐斯价格?有与普锐斯相比的地方吗?

Here's a direct comparison between the 丰田普锐斯 and a close 美国同等: the 福特逃逸混合. While not an exact match in size or shape (Prius is a hatchback, Escape is a compact SUV), they are both 混合动力车专注于燃油效率、价格实惠和主流吸引力。

丰田普锐斯(2023)

  • 类型: Compact hatchback

  • 燃油经济性:

    • 前方: 57 mpg city / 56 mpg highway

    • 全轮驱动: 53 mpg city / 54 mpg highway

  • 马力: 194 hp (FWD), 196 hp (AWD)

  • 价格范围: $27,450 – $35,865

  • 驱动器选项: FWD standard; AWD optional

  • 主要优势: Industry-leading fuel economy, iconic hybrid nameplate, sleek redesign, reliability

福特Escape混合动力车(2023)

  • 类型: Compact SUV

  • 燃油经济性:

    • 前方: 42 mpg city / 37 mpg highway

    • 全轮驱动: ~39 mpg combined (varies by trim)

  • 马力: 192 hp (combined)

  • 价格范围: $29,495 – $40,955

  • 驱动器选项: FWD standard; AWD optional

  • 主要优势: More space & utility (SUV format), good hybrid efficiency, American brand appeal, available plug-in version

警告摘要:

  • 燃油经济性获胜者: 普锐斯 – by a wide margin

  • 实用性/太空获胜者: 逃逸混合 – SUV layout gives it more cargo and passenger flexibility

  • 美国制造同等产品: 福特逃逸混合 – similar mission, slightly different form factor

There’s currently 没有美国混合动力轿车或掀背车 that competes directly with the Prius in size and mileage. U.S. automakers have focused more on 混合动力SUV和卡车 (like the Escape and Maverick), while Toyota has stayed dominant in the compact hybrid space.

So in Europe, will the US made cars translate to the demands of the consumer there given narrow streets, parking limitations, price of petrol/gas? The US car companies focus on SUVs and trucks which are not practical in Europe.

The calculus is full of many variables. This will take a long, long time to figure out. And that is something more than what was announced yesterday.

最明显的是,如果进口商品价格高出25%,这意味着消费者该商品的价格高出25%。如果消费者想要这样的商品,这对他们来说就是一个负担。

无论如何,在上面的视频中,我概述了随着美国交易时段开始并考虑到大幅波动,现在将推动主要货币的技术面。

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