On March 17, QCP released a daily market observation saying that over the weekend, a BTC giant whale opened a short position of US$400 million in BTC, which triggered market volatility on Sunday. Some groups tried to push for the liquidation of this 40 times highly leveraged position, which can be achieved with only a 2.5% price change. Despite these efforts, the position has not yet been liquidated and nearly $400,000 in funding fees have been paid. Currently, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is 32 (fear), reflecting continued risk aversion, especially against the background of a relatively pessimistic overall sentiment in the stock market. This further strengthens BTC's role as a macro hedging tool. Despite the volatile market sentiment, BTC remained above US$80,000, showing resilience compared to U.S. stocks. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning, affected by rising concerns about a recession. Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out, which is consistent with Trump's previous remarks. Markets will be watching U.S. retail sales data released tonight to determine whether the 0.9% decline in retail sales in January is an early sign of slowing consumer spending or just a correction after the 2024 holiday spending peak. Due to the current lack of strong narrative drivers in the crypto market, the market focus is still on U.S. stocks. Last week, U.S. CPI data was lower than expected, briefly easing market tensions, but the Fed is unlikely to turn to doves in the short term. Expectations for interest rate cuts remain unclear as tariff risks and inflation concerns remain. Therefore, we expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, market volatility is expected to remain high as markets look for any clues about the future direction of the Fed's policies, especially given the uncertainty of Trump's policy changes.