The USDCAD is finding upside resistance at the 200-hour moving average (see green line on the chart above), which have done a good job of stalling rallies and keeping the technical bias tilted toward the sellers . The 200-hour MA comes in at 1.43485 currently. Adding to the bearish lean, price action is also trading below the 100-hour moving average at 1.43276 (blue line on the chart above), reinforcing near-term selling pressure.

The pair last week re-tested and 38.2% retracement of the move up from the February low at 1.4319. The price did move above that level on Thurday, but quickly reversed lower. That adds another technical ceiling to monitor. Unless buyers can push above these moving averages with conviction (and broken 38.2% retracement), upside potential is limited/the sellers are more in control.

On the downside, key support is found in the 1.4268–1.42789 swing area, followed by the rising 100-day moving average just beneath that zone. A break below these levels would likely invite further bearish momentum.

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance:

  • 100-hour MA: 1.43276

  • 200-hour MA: 1.43454

  • 38.2% Fib (of March rally): 1.43916

• Support:

  • 61.8% at 1.42993

  • Swing area: 1.4268–1.42789

  • 100-day MA: ~1.42486