Jingdong Group-SW's second quarter results report to be released, retail business growth rate or improvement, profitability remains solid。In terms of profit, Jingdong's market investment control in the second quarter was slightly effective, and in the new business continued to reduce losses, non-GAAP net profit and non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to record year-on-year growth.。In the second half of 2023, Jingdong business is about to complete the initial adjustment, the self-employed model gradually solid barriers, users retain more room for growth.。

During the "618 Shopping Festival," Jingdong performed well, and its business efficiency and operating capacity are expected to be significantly improved due to business adjustments.。Retail business was affected by the festival during the period of stable earnings, new business continued to reduce losses under the profit margin steadily increased.。"Ten billion subsidies" activities continue to advance and the effect is good, the second quarter "ten billion subsidies" total commodity transactions (GMV) accounted for a rapid increase, for the old users and return users to promote the effect is good.。

In response, major banks have issued forecasts for JD Group-SW's second-quarter results and adjusted their target prices and ratings。

HSBC Global reports forecast JD Group-SW revenue to grow 5% YoY in the second quarter.5% to $282 billion (RMB, the same below), with retail business up 2.5%, while the contribution of third-party retail sellers should maintain a year-on-year upward trend.。The bank suggested that Jingdong Retail's high investment in investment could be offset by three factors: gross margin expansion, efficiency gains and narrowing losses in new businesses, and that business development could be less affected。

JD's efforts to restructure its business and its 10 billion yuan subsidy program have reportedly begun to bear fruit。Driven by the strong purchasing power of consumers during the "618 Shopping Festival," Jingdong's second-quarter results may beat expectations。Therefore, HSBC Global raised its year-on-year revenue growth forecast for JD to 5% from the original 3%, and expects sales growth to be adjusted to 8% to 9% in 2024 and 2025 (slightly below JD management's expectation that growth will return to at least 10%), maintaining its "buy" rating and lowering its target price from HK $222 to HK $203.。

Daiwa released a rating report indicating that the bank believes that Jingdong Group-SW will perform solidly in the second quarter, with retail sales increasing by 3% compared to the same period last year, thanks to the strong release of pent-up consumer demand in the "618 Shopping Festival" and the encouraging growth of total 3P commodity transactions.。In addition, the total volume of merchandise transactions (GMV) in the second quarter increased by 9% year-on-year, 3C products, home appliances and clothing or recorded double-digit growth, while fast-moving consumer goods due to the legacy of the previous year's high base, adversely affecting the performance of the second quarter.。

Daiwa expects JD Retail's second-quarter operating margin to be flat year-over-year, while JD Group's second-quarter net profit margin will increase 52 basis points year-over-year due to lower losses from new businesses。At the same time, the Group's total third-quarter revenue or year-on-year increase of 4.4%, up 5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier..1%。Therefore, Daiwa maintains its earnings forecast for Jingdong from 2023 to 2025, with its HK $216 target price and "buy" rating unchanged.。

Morgan Stanley through the report pointed out that Jingdong Group-SW benefited from the better-than-expected "618" sales results, the second quarter revenue or up 5% year-on-year, total commodity transactions increased 10%, non-GAAP (non-GAAP) net profit margin rose 47 points to 2..9%。The bank expects the group's third-quarter revenue to grow 5% year-on-year, mainly due to the higher base of Q2 results, relative to the same period last year revenue growth of 11%。In addition, due to the early and hot weather this year, the peak season for air conditioning sales was earlier than last year, triggering seasonal fluctuations in appliance revenue in the second and third quarters。Therefore, the bank expects Jingdong's fourth-quarter revenue to grow 8% year-on-year, thanks to a lower base and the impact of business adjustments.。

In addition, the bank also expects Jingdong's non-GAAP net profit margin in the third and fourth quarters to decline year-on-year, but given the recovery in gross profit margins in the first half of the year, which is enough to cushion the company's further investment initiatives in the second half of the year and effectively support the steady expansion of gross profit margins throughout the year, the bank expects non-GAAP net profit margin to rise 31 to 3 percent year-on-year,.7%。In summary, Morgan Stanley raised Jingdong's non-GAAP net profit forecast to 13% this year and raised its net profit forecast for next year by 5% to reflect that gross margin expansion exceeded expectations, and ultimately maintained its $60 target price and "overweight" rating.。