U.S. and Canada's decline continues to narrow this week, Australia and New Zealand are optimistic that the Canadian dollar may recover before the end of the year.
At noon today, the United States and Canada at 1.Refresh intraday highs near 3492, extending previous two-day gains and continuing to narrow this week's decline。
At noon today, the United States and Canada at 1.Refresh intraday highs near 3492, extending previous two-day gains and continuing to narrow this week's decline。
On the dollar side, Wednesday night, the U.S. Automated Data Processing Corporation (ADP) employment data report was released, in which the U.S. private sector created far fewer jobs than expected in March and wage growth was weak.。Successive declines in employment data raise pessimistic expectations, strengthen dollar safe-haven asset attributes, boost dollar。
But as the market predicts an increase in the probability of an early end to the Fed's tightening cycle, dollar bulls avoid aggressive bets and the U.S. and Canada move relatively modestly。In addition, this week's Canadian employment data and U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be released, the market intervention is also relatively cautious。
Canadian dollar, stimulated by OPEC + unexpected production cuts, this week's opening WTI crude oil jumped more than 7% higher, but since then the gains have continued to take back, to some extent dragging down the Canadian dollar。In terms of data, Canada's international merchandise trade, imports and exports all declined in February, which also weighed on it.。
In addition, on the evening of April 6, Beijing time, Canada will announce its employment in March (10,000 people), the previous value of the data is 2.18, with a predicted value of 1.2。TD said employment is expected to increase by 1.20,000, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.2%。Earlier, TD and Citi both predicted that Canada's unemployment rate would rise slightly in March, with employment cooling and slowing。If the Canadian central bank doves, it could push the U.S. and Canada further upward。
Diego Colman, a special strategist at DAILYFX, said that in the current context, sentiment will be the key to influencing the movement of high-beta currencies such as the Canadian dollar.。If market sentiment continues to deteriorate, traders will reduce their exposure and the US and Canada will shine.。Conversely, if market sentiment stabilizes, the likelihood of a decline in the pair will increase。
ANZ, for its part, believes the Canadian dollar will continue to struggle in the short term, but is expected to pick up by the end of the year。The bank said that if by the end of the year, the consumer price index continues to increase to the Bank of Canada's expected 2.6% decline, the current pause in tightening monetary policy may spur a rebound in economic data in the second half of the year。Canadian dollar to continue positive as dollar index falls and oil prices rise。While the Canadian dollar will continue to underperform in the short term, the bank believes that the dollar will gradually fall to 1.29。
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