Fed policy reignites worries Asian currency market short bets heat up
Investors are shorting all Asian currencies again, according to a new survey, shortly after the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates increased, pushing the dollar back to its lost upward momentum。A two-week survey of 11 respondents showed that short bets on the Indian rupee strengthened further, hitting a three-month high.。
Investors are shorting all Asian currencies again, according to a new survey, shortly after the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates increased, pushing the dollar back to its lost upward momentum。
A two-week survey of 11 respondents showed that short bets on the Indian rupee strengthened further, hitting a three-month high.。
Last month, analysts turned bullish on all Asian FX after a weaker dollar and China's lifting of outbreak control measures earlier this year boosted optimism。However, the Fed's recent talk of a longer rate hike dampened market sentiment.。
Since then, a string of strong U.S. economic data, including high inflation figures, have pointed to the resilience of the country's economic conditions and reinforced the Fed's bet that it will continue to raise rates for longer.。
The minutes of the January 31-February 1 Fed meeting, released on Wednesday, also hinted that Fed officials would continue to raise interest rates until the data showed inflation was under control.。
Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, said: "The result is that the Fed minutes provide enough relief to avoid a sustained collapse, but not enough to blindly resume the 'Fed policy shift' strategy.。In anticipation of this, the bank began to look bearish on the Thai baht (Asia's best performing currency this year), the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit (for the first time in three months).。
However, OCBC analyst Christopher Wong takes the opposite view: "I don't think the Fed's repricing will change the picture.。Any positive data following China's decision to reopen its borders will boost Asian foreign exchange, although the rate hike will have a short-term impact on Asian foreign exchange.。"
Last week, the Philippine central bank raised its overnight borrowing rate to 6 percent and said it was unlikely to stop raising rates at its next meeting, but hinted that the first half of the year could end the tightening cycle.。At the same time, most members of the Reserve Bank of India's policy board reiterated that it was too early to ease their vigilance against inflation.。
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a client note: "Countries where the currency cycle remains active are likely to see relatively greater spillover effects on their respective interest rate markets from further fluctuations in the Fed's outlook.。"
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