Focus this week:

The services purchasing managers' index (PMI) will set the tone for the week, with some economies facing the threat of recession in the first quarter.。On Tuesday, the RBA will issue its first rate decision of 2024 and may discuss the timing of a rate cut。However, investors must also take into account China's inflation data as well as central bank comments throughout the week.。

Dollars

Monday will focus on the crucial ISM non-manufacturing PMI, with a boost in service sector activity likely to further reduce bets on a March Fed rate cut.。Tuesday's RCM / TIPP economic optimism index needs attention, the uptrend in economic sentiment could boost demand for the dollar。Thursday will focus on the U.S. labor market, where another rise in jobless claims could increase expectations of a March Fed rate cut.。In addition, investors must also pay close attention to the speeches of FOMC members, Barkin (Wednesday / Thursday), Bostic (Monday), Bowman (Wednesday) and Mester (Tuesday) will affect market sentiment.。

Euro

The week of EUR / USD trading will begin with Monday's German trade data。A decline in German exports would lead to higher expectations of a recession in the first quarter.。In addition, some services PMIs on Monday night also need to be considered, among which Italy's preliminary PMI data may affect market sentiment。On Tuesday, attention will be paid to German factory orders data, a further drop in which could signal a recession in the country's first quarter.。In addition, the final value of German inflation data in January will also affect EUR / USD trading。If the final value of Germany's January inflation data is lower than the preliminary data, it may aggravate market expectations for the ECB to cut interest rates in April.。In addition, the ECB's comments also need attention。

Pound Sterling

On Monday the market will focus on the final data of the UK services PMI, which could affect the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates if it is higher than the initial value of the services PMI。Tuesday's BRC retail sales monitoring data will also be of interest to investors。On Wednesday, UK housing market data will be in focus。Worsening housing market conditions could affect consumer confidence and spending, curbing demand-driven inflation。In addition to the numbers, the market is also paying attention to the Bank of England's comments.。

Canadian Dollar

On Wednesday, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem's remarks will affect buying demand for the Canadian dollar。Separately, the country's trade data will also need to be taken into account on Wednesday。On Friday, Canadian employment data for January will be released, and if there is a signal that labor market conditions are stable, the Canadian dollar's rise against the U.S. dollar will be avoided.。

AUD

Monday will focus on Australia's trade data for December。On Tuesday, Australian retail sales figures are also worth investors' attention。However, this week's highlight is the RBA's interest rate decision。Markets now expect the RBA to keep rates at 4.35% unchanged。

New Zealand Dollar

New Zealand's first-quarter inflation expectations data released on Thursday will affect the buying demand for the New Zealand dollar。

Japanese Yen

January services PMI final data released in Japan on Monday will affect buying demand for yen。In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to the Japanese household spending data released on Monday。In addition, investors must also track the BoJ discussions。

RMB

On the Chinese side, the January Caixin Services PMI, released on Monday, will attract investors' attention.。Also, investors will have to take into account the inflation data released on Thursday.。