The violent fluctuations in global financial markets are like a silent storm, stirring risks and opportunities into a chaotic whirlpool.In April 2025, the capital market is playing out a game between "vultures" and "panics"-when most investors are fleeing in panic due to trade conflicts, debt crises and liquidity tightening, Oak Capital, TCW, Sona and other top Wall Street institutions smell the smell of blood.They went upstream and bargained for sold credit assets at discounts.

The underlying logic of this strategy coincides with the "no one knows, but action must be taken" proposed by Oak Capital co-founder Howard Marks during the 2008 financial crisis: when uncertainty reaches its peak, it is precisely the moment when the risk compensation is most generous.InvalidParameterValue

Market panic has created the best window for credit investors in nearly five years.

The average spread on U.S. high-yield bonds climbed to 419 basis points, leveraged loan prices fell below 95 cents, and huge redemptions from passive funds forced ETFs to sell assets at any cost, further depressing already fragile valuations.Behind this irrational sell-off is the market's overreaction to geopolitical risks and debt defaults.

Take the energy and retail industries as examples. Prices of speculation-grade corporate bonds hit by tariffs have fallen to historical lows, but Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW, pointed out that many of them have solid fundamentals but were mistakenly killed."Identifying survivors and intervening at a discount is the source of Alpha's income."This "gold rush" strategy is exactly the same as the hunting of vulture funds during the 2019 Argentina debt crisis. At that time, when the price of Century Bond fell to 30 cents, institutions such as Morgan Stanley decisively entered the market and eventually gained excess returns in the debt restructuring.InvalidParameterValue

Howard Marks likened the current market environment to a "situation where no one knows", emphasizing that the essence of investment is not to predict the future, but to make brave bets when risk pricing is out of balance.In his latest memo, he reviewed the decision-making logic in 2008: Although it is impossible to predict when the crisis will bottom out, when the default rate implied in asset prices far exceeds the actual probability, systematic underestimation creates a margin of safety.

This thinking is particularly evident in the current credit market-Oak Capital is accelerating the deployment of its opportunistic debt funds, targeting asset-backed loans whose yields have soared to 10%-12% due to panic selling, while providing customized capital solutions for troubled companies.

Some fund managers have also begun to take advantage of the chaos to increase U.S. debt related assets.Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit and head of credit transactions at TCW Group, said the company has been investing in these asset classes: credit assets where markets are fleeing tariff-related risks.There must be companies among these assets that can survive, and we want to identify them and invest in them at better prices.

Ovain Griffiths, a partner at alternative asset management firm Sona Asset Management, also said: Opportunities are increasing and we are raising funds to respond to various situations.We are constructive about the long-term prospects.Given factors such as Germany's upcoming fiscal stimulus measures, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about Europe.