On August 28th, in the Asian market, international oil prices experienced narrow fluctuations due to market concerns over the economic prospects of the US and China. Yesterday, Brent crude oil futures for October fell by $1.88, a drop of 2.3%, closing at $79.55 per barrel; the main WTI crude oil futures contract fell by $1.89, a drop of 2.4%, closing at $75.53.

The oil price has been impacted in recent trading days, with the latest decline following a rebound near the 200-day moving average. The war situation in the Middle East and Libya's threat to restrict exports initially supported oil prices, but this trend was quickly offset by a widespread bearish sentiment—due to weak demand, several banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have revised down their oil price forecasts for next year.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also pointed out that the sluggish Chinese economy and the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles have also curbed China's fuel consumption, as China has always been the world's largest crude oil importer. In Europe, due to the weakness in manufacturing and structural changes in the automotive industry, the market demand for diesel is also sharply decreasing, with current usage even lower than during the pandemic period.

Currently, traders are closely monitoring economic data to be released later this week, including growth and employment figures, which will provide more information on the prospects for monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has hinted that a rate cut may be coming soon. At present, the relevant futures have fully priced in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the only question being whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points.

On the supply side, a Reuters survey released on Tuesday shows that US crude oil and oil product inventories may have declined to varying degrees last week. Eight analysts surveyed estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by about 2.3 million barrels in the week ending August 23rd. Gasoline inventories decreased by about 1.6 million barrels; distillate fuel oil inventories, including diesel and heating oil, are expected to decrease by about 1.1 million barrels; the estimated refinery utilization rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous week's 92.3%.

Subsequently released API and EIA crude oil reports have also confirmed Reuters' view. The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.407 million barrels in the week ending August 23rd, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.863 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.405 million barrels; EIA data states that in the week ending August 16th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels to 426 million barrels, with analysts expecting a decrease of 2.7 million barrels.

Regarding the future trend of the oil market, Jeff Currie, Chief Strategic Officer of Carlyle Group's Energy Path and a senior commodity analyst, said that after "carry trades" have shifted the market's urgently needed funds, oil prices will face a greater opportunity to soar.

Currie said: "High interest rates will stimulate hedge funds and physical crude oil companies to cut up to $100 billion in futures positions and crude oil inventories and turn to the US money market. But he said that as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, crude oil is expected to become more attractive and attract capital backflow, a reversal similar to the yen 'carry trade' liquidation that disturbed the stock market this month, and severe crude oil supply disruptions could significantly amplify this trend."

Currie also said: "As interest rates are lowered, the cost of holding these inventories will decrease, and we will see more inventories re-entering the crude oil market, both in physical and financial terms." "We should see that the dynamics that exerted downward pressure on prices are reversing. Under the same other conditions, oil prices should rise."