On July 30th, due to unstable demand prospects and a strong US dollar, international oil prices lingered near a 7-week low.

After falling by over 3% in the previous two trading days, Brent crude continued to be maintained below $80 per barrel, while WTI crude remained around $75 per barrel.

Citi and other banks have downgraded the growth expectations of Asia's largest economy, casting a shadow over the oil price outlook. Crude oil prices shipped to the region have been falling, with an oversupply of crude oil. Data released this month shows that in the first half of 2024, the total import volume of fuel oil in the Asian powerhouse fell by 11%, triggering concerns about the broader demand prospects of the Asian giant.

Originally, under the stimulus of OPEC+ production cuts and expectations of US interest rate cuts, crude oil had risen slightly since the beginning of the year, but has been under pressure due to weak demand. Experts say that according to the latest RSI indicator, both Brent and WTI crude are oversold, and the price drop has been too rapid.

Market analyst Tsvetana Paraskova said that this summer, the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories has been faster than usual. However, the decline in inventories over the past four weeks has not triggered an increase in Brent or WTI crude, as concerns about Asian oil demand persist.

Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Group, also said that any fluctuations in the Asian market will affect the global balance, and oil consumption data has been weak in recent months.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the US dollar index rose by about 0.2%, reaching the highest level in over two weeks at 104.75, closing at 104.57, which has exerted certain pressure on crude oil priced in US dollars.

This coming Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will make the final July interest rate decision, and OPEC+ will hold a crude oil monitoring meeting the day after. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to stay put this time, maintaining high interest rates, and then start cutting interest rates in September. However, there is no consensus in the market on whether OPEC+ will continue to cut production as planned in the next quarter.

Analysts say that at the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut juncture, investors need to pay special attention to the changes in the bank's expectations. Although the possibility of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged exceeds 95%, officials may still pave the way for a September rate cut with dovish remarks. Forex market analysts say, "If the Federal Reserve confirms a dovish stance, the forecast may be upgraded to three rate cuts before the end of the year." Unexpected monetary policy may hit the US dollar and boost the oil market.

Tonight, the United States will also release the crude oil inventory report for the previous week. Analysts say that if the inventory is high, it is expected that the oil price will continue to ignore the good news and continue the downtrend of the past four weeks.

Bank of America analysts wrote in a report, "Oil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year. Perhaps the disappearance of macro risk premiums, global demand and/or supply cuts are on the horizon, leading to a drop in oil prices to $63.02 per barrel before the end of 2024."