On March 27, Goldman Sachs once again became the focus of the gold market.The investment bank raised its forecast for gold prices at the end of 2025 to $3300 from $3100 per ounce and widened the price range from $3100 -3300 to $3,250 - 3,520.This adjustment not only reflects the market's reassessment of structural demand for gold, but also reveals the strategic shift of central banks and investors around the world under multiple uncertainties.

Central Bank Buying Gold: From Tactical Defense to Strategic Allocation

The core factor driving Goldman Sachs to adjust its forecast is the central bank's gold purchase behavior continues to exceed expectations.Since the assets of the Russian central bank were frozen in 2022, the gold reserve strategy of emerging market central banks has undergone a fundamental shift.Data shows that the average monthly purchase of gold by emerging market central banks before 2022 is only 17 tons, but after 2022 this figure has soared to 85 tons, and the average monthly purchase from November 2025 to January 2026 even reached 109 tons.Goldman Sachs raised its central bank demand assumption from 50 tons per month to 70 tons, and expects Asian countries such as China to accelerate gold accumulation in the next 3-6 years, with the goal of increasing the proportion of gold reserves from the current 8%. to 20%-30%.Behind this trend is not only questions about the security of the dollar-dominated reserve system, but also a safe-haven response to the swelling US fiscal deficit and the risk of potential financial sanctions.For example, if China increases its holdings at a rate of 40 tons per month, it will take three years to reach its 20% reserve target, and this process may be accelerated by geopolitical tensions.

ETF demand: Resonance between interest rate cycles and market sentiment

Capital inflows into gold ETFs have become another key variable.Goldman Sachs pointed out that ETF positions have recently rebounded to 85% of pre-epidemic levels, far exceeding market expectations, both related to Fed rate cut expectations and reflecting investor anxiety about macro risks.Although the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025 has been reduced to 75 basis points from the 100 basis points forecast at the beginning of the year, two 25 basis point rate cuts (expected in 2025) and the third rate cut in the first half of 2026 still provide cyclical support for gold.It is worth noting that if the economic recession triggers more aggressive easing policies, or investors 'hedging demand pushes ETF positions back to their 2020 peak, gold prices may hit $3680 by the end of 2025.

Geophysical Game and Fission of Market Structure

Geopolitics has become a "tail risk" that cannot be ignored in gold pricing.Goldman Sachs specifically mentioned that rumors that the United States may impose additional tariffs on the European Union and the hype over the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" framework directly catalyzed the gold price to break through the US$3000 mark on March 14.Although the potential conclusion of a Russia-Uzbekistan peace agreement may trigger short-term speculative selling, the central bank's perception of the safety properties of gold has been fundamentally changed due to asset freeze-even if the conflict abates, the strategy of de-dollarization and asset diversification will not be reversed.In addition, uncertainty in U.S. policies (such as tariff discussions) and fluctuations in financial markets (such as margin clearing triggered by a stock market crash) may create short-term disturbances, but structural demand will eventually dominate the trend.

Supply-side variables: undervalued disturbance factors

The dynamics of the gold supply side are also worthy of attention.As the world's second largest gold producer, Russia's export flows under sanctions have been reshaped through channels such as CIS countries and the United Arab Emirates. The lifting of sanctions may actually reduce market supply because it does not need to rely on gold for foreign exchange.At the same time, China's February 2025 policy of allowing 10 insurance companies to allocate 1% of their assets in gold. Although 280 tons of potential funds have not yet entered the market in the short term, it may aggravate the Shanghai-London premium in the long run, especially in the context of limited import quotas.These supply-side changes and policy interventions have provided implicit support for gold prices.

The bank reiterated its recommendation to go long in gold, but believed there were two potential events that could provide more attractive entry points.

The first event is a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could trigger a temporary speculative sell-off.However, this is unlikely to have a lasting impact on global gold supply and demand.

Another event was a margin driven gold liquidation triggered by a sharp sell-off in stocks.However, as speculative positions recover amid uncertainty and structural demand from central banks and ETFs remains unchanged, Goldman Sachs expects this to be short-lived.

The bank also pointed out that medium-term risks still tend to move upwards.In more extreme tail risk scenarios, gold could even climb above $4200 per ounce by the end of 2025.

Differences and consensus: The spectrum of institutional expectations

Market expectations for gold are not monolithic.

JPMorgan Chase predicts that gold prices will reach US$2900 at the beginning of 2025 and rise to US$3000 at the end of the year; Bank of America believes that it may hit US$3000 in the second half of the year, but the average price for the whole year remains at US$2750.Domestic securities firms such as Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities emphasized the amplifying effect of tariff policies and central bank purchases on the supply and demand gap. Shen Wanhongyuan also pointed out that the U.S. fiscal deficit will support gold prices in the long run.In contrast, Goldman Sachs '$3300 target and extreme scenario forecast of $4200 are clearly based on a more aggressive model of central bank behavior and risk premium.This divergence just confirms the complexity of gold pricing-it is both a function of interest rates, a barometer of geopolitics, and a reverse indicator of trust in the global monetary system.