FundamentalOverview

The US Dollar fell acrossthe board in the final part of last week for two main reasons. The US PPI report came in higher than expected but thefocus was on the details that feed into the Core PCE index, which is what theFed focuses on. Those details were all very soft and helped to bring the earlyestimates down to more benign levels. In fact, the Core PCE Y/Y is nowprojected to fall to 2.6% vs. 2.8% in the prior month. That’s good news for theFed.

Eventually, the bearishmomentum increased substantially as the Trump’s tariffs saga came to an end. Infact, the US President announced his reciprocal tariffs that could go into effect in Aprilbut the overall tone of it wasn’t aggressive and sounded a lot like the startof a negotiating process to bring tariffs to a fair level for everyone.

On the CHF side, the SwissCPI last week came in line with expectations although the core measure increased.It didn’t change much for the SNB, but the market scaled back the expectationsfor potential negative rates which boosted the Swiss Franc.

USDCHFTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that USDCHF broke below the major trendline and bounced around the 0.8960supportzone. The buyers stepped in there with a defined risk below the support toposition for a rally back into the 0.92 handle. The sellers, on the other hand,will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the0.87 handle next.

USDCHF TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, there’snot much we can glean from this timeframe as the price is trading in the middleof the broken trendline and the key support zone. If we go get a pullback intothe trendline, we can expect the sellers to pile in around those levels toposition for the break below the support, while the buyers will look for abreak above the trendline to increase the bullish bets into the 0.92 handlenext.

USDCHF TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, on anintraday basis, we might see the sellers lean on the most recent lower low topush into the key support, while the buyers will look for a break higher to extendthe pullback into he trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

This week is pretty empty on the data frontwith the most important releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. OnThursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday weconclude with the US Flash PMIs.