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Macro outlook for next week: U.S. non-farm payrolls data for February will be released on Friday, and the Federal Reserve's bet on interest rate cuts will increase "

Internet reported that the dollar held a nearly two-week high after U.S. inflation data was in line with expectations on Friday. The quarrel between Trump and Zelensky also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasury bonds hit their strongest start to the year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, which was close to 4.8% in January, is now close to 4.2%, and the yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell below 4% intraday, for the first time in four months. U.S. stocks almost wiped out gains in 2025, but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing their second consecutive week of losses. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday at 22:45, the final value of the US February S & P global manufacturing PMI on Tuesday at 21:50, the 2025 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed Chairman Musalem delivered a speech on Wednesday 3:20. FOMC Permanent Vote Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a speech at the Bloomberg Investment Forum at 21:15 on Wednesday, U.S. February ADP employment at 22:45 on Wednesday, and U.S. February S & P global services industry PMI final value at 1:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book of Economic Conditions at 21:00 on Thursday. 30 The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending March 1 was 21:30 on Friday. The number of non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly wage annual rate and monthly rate in the United States was adjusted in February 23:45. The FOMC Permanent Vote Committee, New York Fed President Williams and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman participated in the report group of the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum organized by the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business to discuss the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for February, which will be released on Friday. This may be a key indicator affecting the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly wages are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data that Fed officials will have before their next policy meeting on March 18 - 19. After cutting interest rates by 100 basis points for three consecutive meetings at the end of 2024, the Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates stable for its second consecutive meeting this year.

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