FundamentalOverview

The USD performance hasbeen mixed this week amid general uncertainty ahead of the April 2 tariffs planannouncement. The greenback got a bit of a boost recently as Trump announced25% tariffs on auto imports on Wednesday but those gains eventually waned.Overall, the market is still pricing between two to three rate cuts this yearand the sentiment remains tentative ahead of the Trump’s “Liberation Day”.

On the JPY side, we got higherthan expected Tokyo CPI figures today which gave the Yen a boost as traderscontinue to focus on the inflation data to decide whether the BoJ could hikemore than twice by the end of the year. Overall, the market is still pricingaround 34 bps of tightening by year-end with particular focus now on theunveiling of the US tariffs plan next Wednesday.

USDJPYTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that after breaking above the major trendline, the pair continued to drift higher.There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe so we need to zoom in tosee some more details.

USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a betterrisk to reward setup around the trendline to position for further upside. Thesellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the trendline to regaincontrol and pile in for a drop into the 140.00 handle next.

USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline. On an intraday basis, we can expectthe buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to positionfor a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pilein for a drop into the major trendline next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PCEreport and the final University of Michigan survey where long term inflationexpectations will be in focus.

Watch the video below