On August 29, spot gold was traded in 1923.$34 an ounce, up 0 in the day.13%。

Fed officials take turns to hawk September rate hike expectations heat up

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and delivered a speech entitled "Inflation: Progress and the Way Forward."。In his speech, Powell set the tone for U.S. inflation - although inflation has fallen from its peak (a welcome development), it is still too high。

Markets react quickly to Powell's hawkish speech and its sensitivity。On the same day, international gold prices fell sharply to around $1903 per ounce, while the yield on the U.S. Five-Year Inflation Protected Bond (TIPS), which measures real interest rates, rose above 2.26%, the highest since 2008。

Local time on Saturday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, 2025 FOMC Vote Committee Mester (Loretta Mester) once again made a hawkish statement。In an interview on the sidelines of the Jackson Hole meeting, she said that to beat inflation, the United States may need to raise interest rates again, and then sit still "for a while."。

Mester reaffirmed the Fed's goal of a 2% inflation level, in line with Powell's argument。Mester said that while she doesn't want policy to be so tight that the economy collapses, she wants policy in place so that inflation hits the Fed's 2 percent target by the end of the year。She believes that the longer inflation stays above 2%, the higher the price level will be, "which will hurt American families."。

Powell also said in his Jackson Hole speech that 2 percent remains our inflation target and that we are committed to achieving and maintaining a sufficiently strict monetary policy stance to bring inflation down to that level over time.。

Mester also revealed that June had expected a rate cut in the second half of 2024, but that could change when she and other Fed policymakers submit new projections ahead of the September rate-setting meeting.。

Market analysts say Powell's tone at Jackson Hole seems to suggest that the Fed is about to raise interest rates at its September policy meeting。But the market has been slow to price the Fed's move。So far, according to CME "Fed Watch," the bank's probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September has come to 21.5%, higher than yesterday's 20.0% and 14 a week ago.0%。

U.S. Treasury market sell-off intensifies amid interest rate hike expectations

A new round of U.S. debt auctions hit after Fed officials sent out hawkish signals。

Yesterday, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, the department has completed a $45 billion auction of 2-year U.S. Treasuries。It is understood that the bid rate for this auction is 5.024%, for the first time since July 2006, the winning bid rate of more than 5%, compared with the previous bid rate of 4 in July..823% about 20 basis points higher。

In addition, the auction of $46 billion worth of five-year Treasuries ended yesterday at 1 p.m. at 4.400% yield winning bid, slightly higher than the 4.399% yield。The yield surpassed last September's Treasury auction, the highest since 2007.。

Commentators said the bid rate hit a new high since 2006 reflects the increased selling in the U.S. Treasury market last week in an environment where investors expect another Fed rate hike this year.。In early July, the secondary market 2-year U.S. bond yields had hit a new high since 2007, but the two-year U.S. bond auction rate at the end of July has fallen, the results of the auction did not reflect the peak of interest rates in the secondary market.。

Overall, the bid rate on U.S. debt remained high, which represented a sell-off in U.S. debt due to expectations of a rate hike revealed by Federal Reserve officials。At the same time, the increase in the supply of bonds has also played a role in pushing up U.S. Treasury yields as the U.S. government's fiscal gap widens。

Shengbao and Damo are optimistic about the gold market.

Regarding the precious metals outlook, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that the US economy will enter a period of extremely low growth and persistent inflation, which means that the price of precious metals such as gold and silver may rise sharply.。

During periods of stagflation, Hansen said, "specific commodities attract more attention" as a tool for inflation hedging and portfolio diversification.。He argued: "A weaker dollar could make dollar-denominated commodities more affordable to non-dollar-denominated buyers, which could amplify demand and prices.。Moreover, another reason these commodities are attractive is that they deliver positive real returns even as inflation undercuts returns on traditional investments.。

Hansen added: "The same is true for industrial metals, but high financing, employment and environmental costs, as well as continued demand for green transition metals, may still allow some of these metals to join the ranks of commodities that may benefit from stagflation."。Therefore, we believe that investors looking to invest in commodities during periods of stagflation should have options and diversify their portfolios across sectors and regions。"

In addition to Hansen, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, is also bullish on gold's aftermarket.。

Scharlett said in a report yesterday that he is optimistic that gold prices will remain resilient despite high interest rates。"Just as the stock market continues to ignore the negative effects of rising real interest rates, gold, which moves in the opposite direction to real interest rates and the dollar, remains extremely resilient."。"

The report last week 10-year U.S. bond real interest rates higher, for example, pointed out that the price of gold in the interest rate higher not down but up, highlighting the resilience。Over the past six weeks, real interest rates on 10-year U.S. bonds have jumped nearly zero.5 percentage points and rose to 2 last week..More than 0%, the highest level since the financial crisis。The rise appeared to be "at least partially durable," the report said, as it was driven by higher-than-expected issuance of Treasuries, downgraded credit ratings, strong economic growth and policy uncertainty.

However, instead of falling sharply, gold stopped falling at its previous low of $1,885 and rose sharply, showing full resilience.。Meanwhile, the latest figures show the SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD is up more than 5% so far this year, despite falling about 2% this month.。Schalet also said that the resilience of gold prices may be related to the view that the rise in interest rates is temporary and "purely technical."。

Therefore, she recommends: buy gold when it weakens or interest rates fall, increase your position, and recommend holding it for the long term。