FundamentalOverview

As the stock markets aroundthe world bottomed, the pressure on gold eventually waned and the preciousmetal rallied strongly into new all-time highs.

The rally has beenaggressive as everyone rushed into gold as protection from potentialstagflation due to trade wars. The problem is that “long gold” is now the mostcrowded trade according to the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey.

In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall as the barfor rate hikes remains very high. The risks include another aggressive stockmarket selloff or a hawkish Fed.

In the short term, given thecrowded long positions in gold, an easing in the trade war will likely triggera deeper correction in the market, so watch out for developments on that front.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that Gold paused its run to the upside around the 3245 level. From a riskmanagement perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setuparound the trendlineto position for further upside. The sellers, on the other hand, will want tosee the price breaking below the trendline and the 2957 level to extend thedrop into the 2832 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that the previous all-time high at 3168 could now act as support. That’s where the buyers will likely step inwith a defined risk below the level to position for further upside. Thesellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pilein and target a pullback into the 3057 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we broke below the minor upward trendline that was defining thebullish momentum on this timeframe. That’s generally followed by someconsolidation or a pullback. Again, the buyers will likely step in around the3168 level to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for abreak lower to target the 3057 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

This week we don’t have much on the agenda andit’s going to be shortened by the Good Friday holiday. Tomorrow, we have the USRetail Sales and Fed Chair Powell speaking. On Thursday, we get the latest USJobless Claims figures. As a reminder, the market is focused on tariffnegotiations at the moment, so the data is not as market-moving as it used tobe in the past months.

Watch the video below