The USDCAD is attempting to stage a recovery after posting a new low yesterday at 1.38278—the lowest level since November 2024. The bounce higher has taken the pair back up to test the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.3952. This level represents the first major technical hurdle for buyers.

A sustained move above the 100-hour MA would shift the short-term bias more to the upside at least in the short term, and open the door for a further rise toward the next key target: the 200-day moving average near the 1.4000 level.

However, failure to break above the 100-hour MA would reinforce it as resistance and keep sellers in firm control, especially with the broader downtrend still intact.

Key levels:

• Support: 1.3925-30, 1.38278 (multi-month low)

• Resistance: 1.3952 (100-hour MA), 1.4000 (200-day MA)

Momentum near-term hinges on the battle at the 100-hour MA. Traders will be watching closely for a directional break.