On October 20, according to a survey, analysts generally believe that the outcome of the European Central Bank meeting next week will be: suspend interest rate hikes and keep interest rates running high。

Respondents did not think interest rates would rise further and predicted that the management committee would confirm in January that rates had peaked.。They expect the ECB to cut interest rates for the first time in September, after the ECB has taken steps to shrink its balance sheet more quickly。

In September, the ECB raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, raising the deposit rate to 4.0%, refinancing rate increased to 4.5%, the 10th rate hike by the ECB。Then policymakers, led by ECB President Christine Lagarde, said they would hold off on raising interest rates to assess whether enough had been done to return inflation to 2 percent。

ING macro director Carsten Brzeski said: "Developments since the September meeting have worsened the eurozone growth outlook, but with oil prices soaring, (eurozone) inflation risks are increasing.。Brzeski added: "Against the backdrop of rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions, a pause in rate hikes for next week's meeting appears to be a foregone conclusion.。"

Speaking at the International Monetary Fund meeting in Morocco this month, Lagarde said the ECB could not declare victory over inflation just yet and said it was patient and cautious in the face of a potential new supply shock.。

France's central bank governor, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, reiterated his view last week that the ECB should keep its key interest rate at current levels - the highest in its nearly 25-year history - for as long as necessary.。

According to the results of another recent survey of economists, respondents generally believe that the ECB's rate hike cycle is over, but the fight against inflation will continue.。Half of respondents don't expect to start cutting rates until at least the third quarter of 2024 or later.。And last month, the survey results showed that many economists believe that a rate cut could take place in the second quarter of next year or earlier。

DekaBank's Kristian Toedtmann said: "Our model suggests that the rate cut may come sooner, but we need to see more subdued data than currently forecast, and I think the September 2024 rate cut is a relatively balanced view.。"

In fact, the level of inflation in the euro area has been on a downward trend, with inflation in September at 4.3%, but still ECB 2.More than twice the 0% target。

Respondents expect the downward trend in inflation in the euro area to continue, but it will not be until at least the third quarter of 2025 before inflation reaches the target set by the European Central Bank.。The average inflation rate this year is expected to be 5.6%, 2 in 2024.7%, 2 in 2025.1%。

While inflation is stubborn, the risks to economic growth are also a big factor in policy considerations for central bank policymakers.。

Eurozone GDP growth of 0% YoY in the second quarter of 2023.5%, below market expectations of 0.6%; GDP growth of 0.1%, also lower than expected 0.3%。

Germany, Europe's largest economy, saw its GDP grow by 0% in the second quarter of this year.。The market expects the German economy to shrink in the third and fourth quarters of this year.。France, the EU's second-largest economy, fared slightly better, recording zero quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter..5%, but the market expects it to remain at risk of stagnation.。

Nerijus Maciulis, chief economist at the Bank of Sweden, said: "The weakening of inflationary pressures and the widening and deepening of economic weakness suggest that a prolonged period of higher (interest rates) will not last long.。Maciulis expects the euro zone to cut interest rates for the first time in April next year and expects deposit rates to fall back to 2 per cent by March 2025.。

Financial markets are also "pricing in" higher interest rates for longer periods。The yield on German two-year government bonds, one of the most sensitive indicators of changes in monetary policy, is currently around 3.2%, about to hit the highest level in 15 years。Meanwhile, money markets are betting that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in July next year and again late next year。