On June 8, local time, the United States and Iran both issued statements denying a previous report.。

US-Iran "Oolong Agreement" Caused Market Panic under Demand Crisis

The report previously noted that the two countries are close to reaching an interim agreement that Iran will curb its nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions from the U.S. side.。The news heightened concerns about a sharp increase in supply in the crude oil market, as the market is currently in a period of weak demand.。

According to recently released data, the Eurozone was already in a technical recession in the first quarter of this year, and the UK is also at risk of recession.。In the U.S., refined oil inventories unexpectedly rose sharply last week, and last night's initial jobless claims also reported their worst performance in nearly a year and a half.。

Due to market concerns about the supply and demand situation of crude oil, WTI crude oil fell 4.8%, later regained lost ground。It is understood that under the agreement rumors, Iran will stop 60% and above of uranium enrichment activities, and in return, Iran will be allowed to export up to 1 million barrels of oil per day。

After the rumors fermented, they were urgently refuted by the United States.。A spokesman for the White House National Security Council said: "This report is false and misleading.。In order to completely dispel market doubts, he further stated: "Any reports of an interim agreement are false."。For its part, Iran's mission to the United Nations also took a negative view of the rumored agreement, saying: "Our comments are identical to those of the White House."。"

In response to the Oolong incident, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, said that for oil, "this is an emotional reaction at the moment."。The reality, he said, is that the news "won't be so pessimistic because it's no big secret that Iran has been selling oil."。

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, also highlighted the importance of demand in the current oil market in market commentary.。He commented: "The most important thing in the current situation is the demand equation.。Yes, OPEC plays an important positive role in the market, but what the world needs is more demand。"

Russia's crude oil exports increased instead of decreasing？Saudi Arabia: Data Clarification

At last week's OPEC + ministerial meeting, the group agreed to extend production cuts already agreed in 2023 until the end of the year and to adjust its production target to 40.46 million bpd from 2024.。It is estimated that OPEC + producers could cut production by a total of nearly 1.4 million barrels per day after the agreement is reached。

Seemingly feeling that it was not strong enough, after the meeting, Saudi Arabia "volunteered" to continue to sound the clarion call for production cuts, saying that it would implement an additional 1 million bpd of production cuts in July, and has since raised its official oil sales prices for all regions in July.。Faced with the temptation to cut production, Russia also urgently joined the Saudi camp, saying it would extend its measures to cut production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2024, which was originally scheduled to end at the end of this year.。

Surprisingly, there is news that, with the same production cuts, Russia is suspected of "sneaking away."。According to tanker tracking data compiled by recent statistical agencies, Russian crude oil flows to international markets have increased rather than decreased.。As of June 4, Russia's average weekly seaborne shipments were slightly higher, from a revised 3.68 million barrels per day as of May 28 to 3.73 million barrels per day, a sharp departure from Russia's commitments, which caused frustration on the Saudi side.。

In order to dispel the misunderstanding, the dialogue between the two also started quickly。Today, according to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman held a conference call, the two sides exchanged views on ensuring the stability of the energy market, and highly affirmed the cooperation within the OPEC + agreement.。

Russia said in a statement: "The two sides held in-depth discussions on ensuring the stability of the global energy market, and both sides expressed appreciation for the high level of cooperation within the OPEC + framework, which has enabled them to take rapid and effective measures to maintain a balance between supply and demand for oil.。"

For now, as Russia has stopped reporting its crude production levels, the market and analysts intelligently rely on data providers' vessel tracking data, trade sources, and import statistics from China and India to understand Russia's crude supply.。

In fact, the Saudis are also aware of the disruption of data opacity to the consistency of OPEC + 's internal objectives, and after the OPEC + meeting, Salman said, "We discussed its production with Russia and asked it to clarify its data, and we have strengthened the concept of transparency in Russian oil production data.。"

As of press time, WTI crude oil rose nearly 1% in the day and is now trading at 71.$7660 / barrel。