According to online reports, Barclays Bank said that one of the factors that may keep U.S. interest rates high is U.S.(inflation) policy. At the December meeting, some FOMC participants apparently began to reflect expectations for tariffs in their inflation forecasts. Moreover, even among those who have not adjusted official forecasts, many now believe that the balance of inflation risk is leaning upwards. Although Powell did not explicitly answer the extent to which the Fed prefers to view it through tariff-related price level increases, we believe that with tariffs expected to lead to increased inflation in the second half of 2025, especially in the context of rising inflation in recent years, it will be a challenge for the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. We expect the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rates after June next year and resume interest rates around mid-2026 after inflationary pressures caused by tariffs dissipate. In our benchmark, we expect two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, with terminal rates of 3.25-3.50%.