In my kickstart video, I highlighted the 1.0432 - 1.0441 zone as key topside resistance that buyers needed to break through to gain control. This area was defined by previous resistance and support levels dating back to early February. A sustained move above this zone would have opened the door for a test of the 100-hour moving average, which ultimately stalled the rally in early European trading.

Following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. housing starts, EURUSD moved higher and tested the upper boundary of this swing area. However, sellers defended the level, leading to a rejection and a subsequent move lower over the past two hours.

The decline has now reached a major support zone, defined by the 200-hour moving average and the 50% midpoint of the broader trading range from the 2022 low, both converging at 1.0405. Just below, the 38.2% retracement of the February upswing sits at 1.0397, making this an important decision point.

A break below 1.0405 and 1.0397 would shift control further toward the sellers, increasing downside pressure. Conversely, if buyers step in at these levels, it could trigger a rotation higher, reaffirming the dip-buying strategy.

Technical Levels in Play:

• Support Levels:

  • 200-hour moving average & 50% midpoint → 1.0405
  • 38.2% retracement of February low → 1.0397

• Resistance Levels:

  • Swing area ceiling → 1.0432 - 1.0441
  • 100-hour moving average → Next upside target

• Key Trading Signals:

  • Above 1.0405 & 1.0397 → Buyers may step in, targeting a reversal higher.
  • Below 1.0405 & 1.0397 → Sellers take control, increasing downside momentum.