According to online reports, Nick Timiraos, the "sounding board of the Federal Reserve", wrote that as Trump considers using tariffs more boldly, a key question hangs over the Federal Reserve: How much will any price increase stimulate public expectations for higher inflation? When or whether the Fed resumes interest rates depends largely on the inflation outlook, which this year may depend on whether Trump follows through on his threat to raise tariffs. When Trump first became president, the trade war escalated and the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in 2019. The Fed is concerned that the impact of a trade war on business sentiment and investment could overwhelm the potential impact of price increases caused by tariffs. At the time, tariffs "did not cause inflation in terms of their impact on economic activity, because it was not an inflationary period," said Steven Cumming, then head of the Federal Reserve's international finance division and now at the American Enterprise Institute. The Fed may respond differently this time after the tariff increase takes effect because the United States has just experienced a period of great inflation. He predicted that the Fed "will indeed be more inclined to oppose tariff increases in this round than in the previous round" and that if the policy of imposing tariff increases is promulgated, the Fed will maintain interest rates at a higher level than before.