Founders of Point72: U.S. stocks may face significant adjustments, and U.S. economic growth is expected to fall to 1.5% in the second half of the year
On February 25, Steve Cohen, hedge fund billionaire and founder of Point72, said in a speech in Miami that due to the influence of Trump administration policies, U.S. stocks may undergo major adjustments. Cohen expects U.S. economic growth to slow from 2.5% to 1.5% in the second half of 2025, which is "the first time he feels very negative in some time." Cohen pointed out that the Trump administration's tariff policy is essentially a tax that may trigger retaliation in international trade; at the same time, immigration restrictions will affect labor growth, and the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) anti-corruption initiative is essentially an austerity policy. The combination of these factors will have a negative impact on the economy. Against the background of the S & P 500 index rising by more than 50% since the beginning of 2023 and Nvidia rising by 800%, the current market valuation is at a historically high, and most investors such as hedge funds and retail investors are close to the limit of their positions, and the market downside risks are significant. It is reported that Point72 is known as "Wall Street's craziest money-making machine." Cohen has also been selected by the American media as the most influential trader in Wall Street history. He is also the prototype of the financial tycoon Bobby Axelrod in the well-known American drama "Billions/Financial War". Analysis by Goldman Sachs 'trading department shows that if stocks fall by 10% in a month, it may trigger a systemic sell-off of about $200 billion, one-third of which comes from the U.S. market.
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