On April 10, China's new tea beverage brand Bawang Chaji officially submitted a prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to issue 14.68 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) at a price of US$26 -28 per share, raising a total of US$411 million.Based on the upper limit of the issue price range, its valuation will climb to US$3.3 billion. This figure not only far exceeds Naixue's current market value of approximately HK$8 billion (approximately US$1.03 billion), but also places it among the world's freshly made tea brands. The first echelon of valuation.The IPO is jointly underwritten by Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, China International International Capital Corporation and Deutsche Bank, and is expected to be launched on the Nasdaq Global Select Market with the ticker symbol "CHA".

Based on the valuation of US$5 billion to US$6 billion disclosed in the prospectus, the P/E ratio of Overlord Tea Girl is about 15 times.In contrast, Mixue Ice City's current P/E ratio is 32 times, and Gu Ming's P/E ratio is 25 times. Despite the recent poor market and the stock market correction, the valuation of 15 times still reserves a water level for the secondary market.

From the perspective of financial performance, the growth of Bawang Tea Lady can be regarded as an industry benchmark.In 2024, its revenue will reach 12.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 167%, net profit will be 2.515 billion yuan, and net profit margin will be as high as 20.3%, significantly higher than the industry average.The core supporting this data lies in its efficient operating model: as of the end of 2024, the number of stores worldwide reached 6,440, an increase of 83% from 3,511 in 2023, and the store closure rate is only 1.5%, far lower than the industry average.This mixed expansion strategy of "direct sales + franchising" not only ensures the consistency of brand tonality, but also uses the franchisee network to achieve rapid sinking, forming differentiated competition with Mixue Ice City's path.InvalidParameterValue

Confidence in the capital market not only stems from financial data, but is also closely related to brand strategy.Since its establishment in 2017, Bawang Tea Ji has entered the market with the positioning of "national style tea drinks" and captured young consumers through oriental aesthetic packaging and product innovation (such as fruit tea, milk tea, etc.). The single-store profit model has been initially verified.Founder Zhang Junjie will still hold 89% of the voting rights after the IPO. Although this founder's absolute controlling structure may cause corporate governance disputes, it also ensures the consistency of strategy execution.In addition, CDH Investment, Allianz Global and other institutions have promised to subscribe for ADSs of no more than US$205 million, accounting for nearly 50% of the total fundraising, highlighting institutional investors 'recognition of its long-term value.InvalidParameterValue

Choosing to list in the United States rather than Hong Kong stocks reflects consideration of valuation premiums.The U.S. capital market usually gives high-growth consumer brands a higher price-to-sales ratio (P/S), while Bawang Tea Ji's GMV (total commodity transaction volume) in 2024 will reach 29.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 173%. This growth rate is sufficient to support its $3.3 billion valuation expectations.At the same time, overseas expansion plans may become a new growth engine: currently, it has more than 150 stores in Malaysia, Singapore and other places. It plans to add 1,000 - 1,500 stores in 2025, and plans to open its first store in the United States in Los Angeles, aiming at global layout.InvalidParameterValue

However, hidden concerns cannot be ignored.On the one hand, homogenization competition in the new tea and beverage industry has intensified, and while brands such as Xi Tea and Naixue are shrinking their front lines, the counter-trend expansion of Bawang Tea may face the risk of saturation of demand; on the other hand, the U.S. capital market's tightening supervision of Chinese stocks, combined with the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy, may affect investor sentiment.In addition, the pressure on supply chain management brought about by rapid expansion and the challenges of localization in overseas markets (such as taste adaptation and insufficient brand recognition) require continuous investment of resources.InvalidParameterValue

From an industry perspective, the new tea drinking track is undergoing structural differentiation.In 2024, China's new tea beverage industry will consume approximately 300,000 tons of tea, accounting for 1/8 of the total domestic sales of tea. The size of the sugar-free tea beverage market will be close to 60 billion yuan, and explicit demand is still expanding.If Overlord Tea Lady can use capital leverage to consolidate the supply chain and deepen digital operations (such as increasing the proportion of online takeout), she may be able to replicate Luckin Coffee's "Blitz" myth.However, it should be warned that Ruixing has been delisted due to financial fraud, and the financial transparency and compliance of Bawang Chaji will face more stringent scrutiny.InvalidParameterValue

As early as 2019, Overlord Tea Lady started the process of internationalization.In August 2019, Bawang Chaji's first store in Malaysia opened, taking the first step in Bawang Chaji's overseas strategy.In August 2024, Bawang Tea Lady will open three stores in Singapore.On the opening day of the first store, there was a long queue outside the Bawang Tea Ji store, and the cumulative number of receptions in the three days before the opening exceeded 10,000.The news of the opening of the first store of Bawang Tea Lady in Singapore has also become a hot topic on local social media.At present, the overseas stores of Bawang Tea Lady have expanded to Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.It is understood that the first store in the United States will soon be launched in Los Angeles, and the first store in Indonesia will also open in the near future.The prospectus shows that in 2025, Bawang Tea Lady plans to open 1000 to 1500 new stores in China and around the world.

After listing, Bawang Tea Ji will become the "No. 1 stock of new tea drinks in the United States". It can gain global popularity through listing in the United States, further consolidate its leading position in the new tea drinks industry and accelerate its global expansion.