On January 22, in the Asian market, the international oil price dynamics were complex. Brent crude oil prices were close to US$79 per barrel after continuous decline, while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) was lower than US$76 per barrel.The new U.S. President Trump said he is considering imposing a 10% tariff on China goods.In addition, Canada has begun to ship large quantities of crude oil to the United States in order to avoid potential tariffs.

On the news front, Trump passed a series of executive orders on his first day in office to comprehensively reform U.S. energy policy and threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canada and Mexico.Canada and Mexico are both important trading partners of the United States, especially crude oil exporters.Rystad Energy analyzed that Canadian suppliers are "bringing as much crude as possible to market" to complete deals before the tariffs take effect, which could hit oil prices in the short term.

Refineries in the Midwest, such as ExxonMobil's Joliet refinery in Illinois, Marathon Oil's Robinson refinery and Seger Oil's Lemont refinery, and BP Whiting refinery in Indiana, are major importers of Canadian crude oil.In addition, some Canadian crude oil is also shipped to refineries in other parts of the United States, including California and Texas.

Despite this, crude oil prices will remain high overall in 2024, mainly due to extensive U.S. sanctions on Russia.These sanctions have disrupted global crude oil and tanker markets, further exacerbating market uncertainty.Trump also said he might impose more sanctions on Moscow if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not negotiate on Ukraine.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV, pointed out that the focus of the crude oil market is gradually shifting from the risk of Russian sanctions to the real risk of escalating trade tensions.In addition, increased trade tensions have also supported the dollar exchange rate.This complex market dynamics suggests that the future trend of crude oil prices will be affected by a combination of multiple factors, including U.S. trade policies, geopolitical tensions and the process of global economic recovery.

The Trump administration has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian imports as early as February 1.This policy move not only affects the oil market, but may also have a profound impact on the domestic energy supply chain in the United States.

Susan Bell, an analyst at Rystad Energy, pointed out that the existence of potential tariffs makes oil more valuable today than in the future, prompting sellers to ship as much oil as possible out of the country before tariffs are implemented and prices fall.According to market data, Canadian heavy cold lake crude sold for $3 a barrel less than WTI crude in the Gulf of Mexico last week, the smallest discount in the past year and a half.This price change reflects the market's expected adjustment to tariff policies, and also highlights PetroCanada's competitiveness in the U.S. market.

Bell also said suppliers were "trying to bring as much production as possible to market before the tariffs are implemented," a strategy that could help replenish inventories in the U.S. Midwest, including at the key hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, where reserves recently fell to their lowest level in a decade.