On August 16th in the Asian market, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The WTI crude oil contract for October was trading near $76.81 per barrel; the Brent crude oil contract for October was trading near $80.81 per barrel.

After two consecutive days of decline, international oil prices rebounded, mainly due to strong U.S. retail sales data and the intensification of tensions in the Middle East. Market analysts pointed out that although concerns about a global economic slowdown still exist, the resilience of the U.S. economy and the rise of geopolitical risks have provided support for oil prices.

Yesterday, the U.S. released the so-called "terrifying data" of U.S. retail sales in July. The data increased by 1% month-on-month, far exceeding the market's expected increase of 0.3%. Analysis suggests that despite facing inflationary pressures, the purchasing power of U.S. consumers remains strong.

As the world's largest retailer, Walmart's same-store sales increased by 4.2% year-on-year and raised its annual profit forecast, further confirming the strength of the U.S. consumer market. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said that there are currently no signs of overall consumer weakness.

In addition, the tension in the Middle East also affected oil prices.

The tense relationship between Iran and Israel has intensified, and the market is worried that Iran may retaliate against Israel, which increases the risk premium for crude oil. At the same time, the new sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Iran, as well as restrictions on ships and company networks suspected of selling Iranian crude oil to China, have also exacerbated market concerns about supply tightness.

However, China's performance in July has sown hidden worries for the demand of the oil market.

Traders show that China's oil demand in July fell by 8% year-on-year, and this data has intensified the pessimism about the economic slowdown of Asia's largest economy. At the same time, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have accumulated to some extent last week, also reminding the market that demand is weak.

From a technical analysis perspective, after a period of adjustment, oil prices are currently looking for a new balance point.

Forexlive analyst Adam Button pointed out that the U.S. retail sales report and the remarks of Walmart executives both emphasized the strength of U.S. consumption. If this trend continues, consumption at gas stations may remain stable, thus supporting gasoline demand. He also mentioned that from a technical point of view, oil prices are consolidating after testing the $72 mark, and if they can break through $84, they may generate more upward momentum.

ANZ Bank mentioned in a technical report that from a technical point of view, the U.S. crude oil futures for October are still under pressure from the 55-day moving average, which is currently near 77.53. Before breaking through this resistance, there is still a need to be vigilant about the risk of further decline in oil prices, with attention to the support near the 200-day moving average at 75.95 and the 10-day moving average at 75.51. If the 10-day moving average is lost, it will increase the bearish signals for the later market. If the oil price strongly breaks through the 55-day moving average, it will increase the bullish signals for the later market.

More market participants have said that in the long run, the trend of oil prices is volatile and there is a certain degree of uncertainty.

On the one hand, the Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates in September to cope with the risk of slowing economic growth; on the other hand, geopolitical risks and the uncertainty of the global economic outlook may also have a greater impact on oil prices.

ING Group analysts believe: "Geopolitical risks continue to loom over the oil market. It is currently unclear how and whether Iran will retaliate against Israel. This uncertainty leads to increased activity in options trading, with market participants hoping to protect themselves from the impact of a sharp rise in oil prices."

Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, also said that with the end of the summer driving season in the Northern Hemisphere, oil demand usually weakens, but sometimes a significant seasonal decline can see a rebound in commodity prices, and the tension in the Middle East may become a catalyst.

Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities, pointed out that with the overselling in the oil market on Wednesday, there was a rebound in trading on Thursday, indicating that market sentiment is changing.