In September 2024, U.S. retail and food service sales reached $714.4 billion, up 0.4% from the previous month and up 1.7% from September 2023. According to preliminary estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, this data shows that consumer demand continues to be stable, with total sales from July to September up 2.3% from the same period in 2023. It shows that consumer spending remains resilient despite economic challenges.

Strong Growth in Both Retailing and Online Shopping

Retail trade sales rose 0.3% in a single month and 1.4% year-on-year. Among them, driven by the growth of e-commerce, non-store retailers increased by 7.1% year-on-year. In addition, sales at food service and beverage venues increased by 3.7% year-on-year. This shows that online shopping and dining out are in strong demand, although inflation and high interest rates may pose challenges to future consumer spending.

Manufacturing Expanded this October

The October 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed that regional manufacturing activity expanded, and key activity indicators such as overall activity, new orders and shipments rebounded again after the decline in September. The overall activity index rose from 1.7 to 10.3, and the new orders and shipments indexes also returned to positive values, indicating a recovery in demand.

However, the employment index fell to -2.2, showing that employment levels were generally stable, but the number of companies reporting a decrease in employment increased. In addition, price pressures eased, with both the paid and received prices indexes falling, but still positive. This shows that input costs are still rising, but the growth rate is slowing, reflecting the continued inflationary pressure within the manufacturing industry.

Next 6 Months Manufacture Outlook Remains Optimistic

Looking ahead to the next six months, manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the outlook. The future overall activity index soared to 36.7, and nearly half of companies expected activity to increase. The expected indicators of new orders and shipments reached their highest level since the spring of 2024, and the rise in the future employment index also showed that companies expect to increase employment.

Notably, capital expenditure plans indicate that investment will be stronger in 2025. More than 50% of companies plan to increase spending on hardware, software and energy-saving technologies, while spending on building structures may decrease. This optimism reflects that companies are optimistic about continued growth in the future despite the current challenges.

Market Outlook

Overall, retail and manufacturing data reflect a cautious but steady economic recovery. The resilience of the retail sector, especially online sales and catering services, coupled with the expansion of manufacturing activities, suggest that the economy is expected to achieve moderate growth. However, inflationary pressures in the manufacturing industry and cautious employment trends may limit growth expectations to some extent.