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Geopolitical situation and US earnings season worry investors

The evolving geopolitical situation, particularly the tensions between Israel and Iran, will inject new volatility into the markets this week.

Geopolitical situation and US earnings season worry investors

This week, as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, and markets are poised for a new round of volatility. As concerns mount over the potential for full-scale conflict, uncertainty persists. The recent escalation has raised questions about the onset of retaliatory cycles, which could trigger risk aversion among investors and lead to panic selling of stocks.

The ripple effects of the Middle East conflict could manifest in oil price fluctuations, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve may be prompted to reconsider its plans for interest rate cuts, potentially dampening investor sentiment in the stock market and hindering the Fed's achievement of its 2% inflation target.

During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, investors typically turn to safe-haven assets, which could push up prices of precious metals and safe-haven currencies while prompting the sell-off of risk assets.

The conflict between Iran and Israel could impact a broad range of stocks in the U.S. market, particularly those in sectors such as energy, defense, and finance, which may be more susceptible to volatility. Rising oil prices could support energy stocks, while increased demand for defense products and services could benefit companies in the defense sector. The financial sector, sensitive to interest rate changes, may also experience volatility.

In addition to geopolitical developments, the upcoming week will also see a plethora of key earnings reports from major U.S. companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. Companies worth noting include Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS), Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW), UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX), Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), and American Express Company (NYSE: AXP).

Furthermore, economic indicators such as March retail sales, March building permits, March industrial production, the latest report on crude oil inventory changes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and March existing home sales will provide important clues about consumer spending, real estate market activity, manufacturing production, and dynamics in the oil market.

Investors will also closely monitor speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including John C. Williams, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Mary C. Daly, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Given the Fed's decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate in March and hint at three rate cuts this year, investors will pay close attention to any hints or changes in the monetary policy outlook.

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