JPMorgan Chase raised the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession by the end of this year to 35% from 25%, while Goldman Sachs also raised the probability to 25%.

The latest economic data show weak demand in the U.S. labor market and an increase in layoffs, including Cisco, Dell and Intel, among other companies are laying off workers. Despite easing inflationary pressures, JPMorgan expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming months.

Recently, Warren Buffett's Berkshire disclosed that it significantly reduced its holdings of Apple and other stocks in the second quarter, while increasing its holdings of short-term U.S. Treasury securities to $234.6 billion, more than the total amount held by the Federal Reserve System. In addition, Berkshire's cash reserves reached a record high of $276.9 billion. All of these moves show Buffett's cautious approach to the U.S. economic outlook.

Market concerns about the U.S. recession continue, investors began to speculate on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

So far this year the Fed has raised interest rates several times, but the recent wave of market selling, rising unemployment and lower-than-expected employment report led to the market began to speculate that the Fed may take emergency measures to cut interest rates.

Analysts' view: the possibility of an emergency rate cut is minimal

• Chris Lau thinks an emergency rate cut is unlikely because U.S. Treasury yields have fallen significantly. Compared with stock market volatility, the Fed is more concerned about economic data in August.
• Lawrence Fuller said that the recent market volatility is more a reflection of market events than economic issues, and the service sector is still supporting economic growth, so the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before the September meeting are almost zero.
• Damir Tokic pointed out that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates before the September meeting or by 50 basis points at the meeting because market volatility has not been accompanied by credit events, the rise in the unemployment rate is viewed as a normalization process in the labor market, and the core CPI is still the focus of the inflation problem.
• Victor Dergunov believes that an emergency rate cut is unlikely and probably unnecessary, with the market currently experiencing a healthy pullback, and that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates early unless there is a sharp 20% correction in the S&P 500.
• Justin Purohit, on the other hand, said that current economic conditions do not support emergency rate cuts, and that the Fed needs to see more evidence of systemic problems before it will consider an emergency rate cut, which is unlikely to occur in the near term.