According to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey, business activity in New York State continued to decline slightly in July 2024. The overall business condition index has remained almost unchanged at -6.6, indicating a steady but moderate decline in manufacturing activity.

Continuous contraction of activity

The survey results show that new orders remain stable, with a slight change in the new order index to -0.6. The shipment volume has slightly increased, with the shipment index rising to 3.9. Unfinished orders decreased, inventory further decreased, and the inventory index dropped to -6.1. The delivery time has improved, with a delivery time index of -9.2, indicating an acceleration in delivery speed. The supply situation is stable, and the supply availability index is zero.

Employment continues to decline

The employment situation has deteriorated, with an employee index of -7.9, marking several consecutive months of employment contraction in the industry. The average working hours index hovers around zero, indicating stable working hours. The input price has slightly increased, with the payment price index rising slightly to 26.5, while the sales price has slightly increased, with the received price index at 6.1.

Enterprises are relatively optimistic about the future situation

Despite facing current challenges, companies remain relatively optimistic about the future. The Future Business Condition Index is 25.8, slightly lower than last month, but still reflects optimism, with 41% of respondents expecting improvement in the next six months. However, expectations for employment growth remain low, and capital expenditure plans appear sluggish.

Market prediction

Based on current data, the outlook for the manufacturing industry in New York State remains cautious. The sustained decline in business activities, continued contraction in employment, and moderate price increases indicate a bearish market expectation in the short term. Despite holding a certain optimism about the future situation, the current challenges may affect market sentiment.