U.S. PCE rose as expected in January, but inflation did not retreat, making it difficult to cut interest rates.
The latest price index report shows that the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose in January as expected, but inflationary pressures remain.。
The latest price index report showed that the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose in January as expected, which brought some relief to markets and policymakers.。The report, an important reference in the Fed's decision-making process, showed that the core PCE price index, which deducts food and energy costs, rose 0 percent in January..4%, an increase of 2% over the same period last year..8%。Overall PCE price index, including volatile food and energy categories, increased by 0 per month.3%, an annual increase of 2.4%, in line with analysts' expectations。
The surprise came from data on personal income, which reported a 1% rise in January, well above expectations of 0.3% growth。However, consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1%, with market expectations of 0.2% growth in contrast。These data reflect the economy's gradual recovery from the disruptions of the neo-crowning epidemic, while consumer behavior is changing, shifting from goods to services。
In detail, service prices rose by 0 in January.6%, while commodity prices fell by 0.2%。On an annual basis, service prices increased by 3.9%, commodity prices fell by 0.5%。Among them, food prices rose by 0.5%, while energy prices fell by 1.4%, showing that market pressure is easing in some areas。
While the report shows inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, the annual rate of core PCE growth reached its lowest point since February 2021, which may leave some room for the Fed on future monetary policy。Fed officials have hinted that they expect to start cutting rates this year, but the timing and scope remain uncertain。In addition, recent initial jobless claims also show that the labor market remains resilient, which could further support the Fed's cautious approach in the short term.。
The combination of these data shows that although the economy is gradually recovering, inflationary pressures remain, and the Fed will have to find a delicate balance between promoting economic growth and controlling inflation as it adjusts its policy.。As more data is released, the market will continue to watch the Fed's next move closely, especially at its next interest rate decision meeting.。
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