Dollars

This Monday (June 3rd), the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will attract investor attention. A more significant contraction in the manufacturing industry may raise concerns in the market about a hard landing for the US economy.

However, the JOLTs job vacancy data on Tuesday (June 4th) and the ADP non farm employment and ISM service PMI data on Wednesday (June 5th) may have a greater impact on the US dollar. The deterioration of labor market conditions and a more pronounced contraction in the service industry may increase market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September.

In addition, data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits will be released on Thursday (June 6th).

The US employment report released on Friday (June 7th) may be crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The rebound in wage growth and the stability of the US unemployment rate may change market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September.

There are no speeches from Federal Reserve officials to consider this week. The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) entered a period of silence on June 1st.

Euro

The manufacturing PMI on Monday (June 3rd) will focus on EUR/USD. Preliminary data increases from Germany and the eurozone may drive demand for the euro.

However, the service sector PMI on Wednesday (June 5th) may have a greater impact on EUR/USD. As a factor of inflation, the service sector remains a focus of attention for the European Central Bank (ECB). The upward trend of wages and input prices may test investors' bets on ECB interest rate cuts after June.

On Thursday, June 6th, orders from German factories will attract the attention of investors. However, the main events will be the ECB's monetary policy decision and press conference. The market expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut. However, the uncertainty regarding policy goals after June made the subsequent press conference a focus of attention. The ECB interest rate cut may increase demand for the euro and improve market confidence in the eurozone economy.

On Friday (June 7th), German industrial production and Eurozone GDP data will be released successively.

Pound

Manufacturing and services PMI final data on Monday and Wednesday could affect investor demand for the pound. The revision of S&P Global CIPS UK Service PMI may have a greater impact on GBP/USD. The service industry accounts for over 70% of the UK economy.

The retail sales monitoring data (June 4th) and housing price data (June 7th) from the British Retail Council (BRC) may be lower than PMI data.

In addition to data, investors should also pay attention to the comments of the Bank of England, especially with increasing uncertainty about whether to cut interest rates in June.

Canadian Dollar

On Wednesday (June 5th), the Bank of Canada and the Canadian dollar will be the focus. Labor productivity data may support investors' bets on multiple interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada in 2024.

However, the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Canada will have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar. The market expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Unless there are unexpected policy decisions from the Bank of Canada, the focus will be on the press conference. Suggestions for more interest rate hikes may affect investors' demand for the Canadian dollar.

Thursday's trade data and Friday's employment data will attract the attention of investors. The degree of impact may depend on the key points emphasized at the Bank of Canada press conference.

AUD

On Tuesday, the company's total operating profit and final retail sales data may affect investor demand for the Australian dollar.The downward revision of retail sales data and the decrease in total operating profit of the company may reignite investors' bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2024.

The GDP data released on Wednesday will be worth investors' attention, followed by Thursday's trade data.

The higher than expected performance of the Australian economy and improvement in trade conditions may slow down investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2024.

New Zealand Dollar

Private sector PMI and trade data from China will affect buying interest in NZD/USD. There are no economic indicators in New Zealand that investors need to focus on this week.

Japanese Yen

On Monday, the capital expenditure data for the first quarter may affect the short-term trend of the Japanese yen. The increase in capital expenditure will indicate an improvement in the macroeconomic environment, which may drive consumer confidence and expenditure. The trend of rising consumer spending may drive demand driven inflation and increase market expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in 2024.

However, Thursday's final service sector PMI data may have a greater impact on the yen. The Bank of Japan hopes that the service industry and household spending can drive demand driven inflation and support a stronger interest rate path for the Bank of Japan.

On Friday, household expenditure data will be worth investors' attention. The rebound in spending after spring wage negotiations will drive investor expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in 2024.

In addition to data, investors should also pay attention to the comments of the Bank of Japan. Nakamura, a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Japan, will give a speech on Thursday. The views on inflation, weakened yen, and interest rates may trigger market volatility.

China

On Monday, the crucial Caixin Manufacturing PMI needs to be monitored. After the release of PMI data from the National Bureau of Statistics, an unexpected decrease in PMI may affect market risk sentiment.

On Wednesday, the Caixin Service Industry PMI also deserves investor attention, followed by Friday's trade data.

The rebound in private sector activity and improvement in trade conditions may be beneficial for commodity currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars.