What is a recession?
A recession is a severe recession that affects many industries and lasts for more than a few months.。
Definition
A recession is a severe recession that affects many industries and lasts for more than a few months.。
Understanding the recession
A recession is a significant and widespread decline in economic activity that lasts for a period of time, usually at least a few months.。Some economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product.。During a recession, unemployment tends to rise and inflation tends to fall。
While a recession can be painful for consumers and companies, it is a normal part of the business cycle and is usually very short-lived.。S., the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially records when recessions begin and end。The last recession began in February 2020 and ended in April 2020, making it the shortest recession in U.S. history.。
What is the official definition of a recession??
There is no single definition of a recession.。Generally, the term describes a period of significant decline in economic activity。Many experts define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in economic output, usually measured by gross domestic product (GDP) or the value of all products a country produces within its borders (adjusted for inflation).。
However, this is not an official definition.。The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonprofit organization that announces the beginning and end of a U.S. recession, has a broader description: Any significant decline in economic activity affects many sectors and usually lasts for more than a few months.。The NBER considers quarterly GDP growth when declaring a recession, but it also takes into account many other factors such as employment, personal income and industrial output.。
What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all goods and services created within a country in a given period of time.。GDP is expressed as a percentage as a composite scoreboard of a country's economic health。
Difference Between Recession and Depression
The recession was less severe than the depression, in part because the recession lasted less。
For example, the Great Depression of the 1930s referred to the entire decade, while the Great Recession of 2007-2009 lasted only two years.。
How long does a recession last??
A downturn usually takes at least six months to count as a recession, but recessions tend to last about one to two years.。Plus, the years that follow could have lingering legacy effects。
For example, lower interest rates have been a side effect of the 2008 recession over the past 12 years。From the end of 2008 to December 2015, interest rates were 0%, meaning savers and bondholders could not earn much interest during that period.。In some places, such as Japan and several European countries, interest rates have even turned negative, which is historic。
What is a recession, depression and bear market??
There is no formal distinction between recession and depression。The National Bureau of Economic Research does not distinguish between the two - it calls any significant, widespread, and lasting decline in economic activity a "recession."。
Many people use the word "depression" to describe a particularly severe recession.。In the United States, the most recent period to meet this requirement was the Great Depression, the longest and worst recession in modern times。It began in August 1929 and lasted nearly four years, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 30 per cent and unemployment above 20 per cent.。
A bear market is a period when stock prices fall and investors are generally pessimistic about the stock market.。Specifically, many economists define a bear market as an index that reflects the overall market (such as the S & P 500) that has fallen more than 20% in at least two months.。
Bear markets and recessions sometimes happen at the same time, but they're not the same thing.。A bear market describes a fall in stock prices, while a recession is associated with a decrease in economic activity.。The stock market and the economy are not equal, and even if GDP falls, stock prices can rise。
What are the signs of recession??
For the average person, the clearest signs of a recession may be layoffs, foreclosures or business failures。
The National Bureau of Economic Research sees declines in some of the following indicators as indicators of a recession:
- Gross domestic product (GDP), or the value of all goods produced in the United States, adjusted for inflation。
- Gross domestic income (GDI), a measure of earned income and the cost of producing GDP, adjusted for inflation。
- employment rate
- industrial production
- Wholesale and retail sales, adjusted for price changes。
- Personal income, adjusted for inflation。
- Monthly consumer spending, adjusted for inflation。
How long will the recession last??
In the United States, the recession was relatively short-lived.。Since the National Bureau of Economic Research began tracking the business cycle, recessions have lasted an average of about 17 months.。During these recessions, the economy expanded for an average of more than three years。
The longest recession on record in the United States lasted five and a half years, from October 1873 to March 1879, known as the "Panic of 1873," triggered by the collapse of a railroad construction financing company.。The second longest recession was the Great Depression, which lasted from August 1929 to March 1933.。The Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted about 18 months.。
What can governments do in the face of recession??
Governments often try to shorten recessions and accelerate recoveries through two policies:
Fiscal policy: This involves legislators adjusting tax levels and government spending。In a recession, the government may adopt an expansionary fiscal policy - tax cuts and spending increases designed to increase demand for goods and services by putting more money in the pockets of consumers and businesses.。For example, the United States Congress passed the Coronavirus Assistance, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act in March 2020 to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.。The government spent more than $2 trillion to aid unemployed workers, small businesses, etc.。
Monetary policy: This involves the Fed changing interest rates and the money supply。During a recession, the Fed may lower interest rates and expand the money supply。Again, the focus is on stimulating aggregate demand by encouraging individuals and firms to spend more。For example, the Fed cut interest rates to nearly 0% in March 2020, a month after the epidemic triggered a recession。
2008年美国Recession performance?
The Great Recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009 and began when the U.S. housing bubble burst.。Beginning in 2001, banks began issuing more low-interest home loans to millions of previously ineligible customers。This has led to increased demand for mortgages and, over time, higher home prices。
Among them, many homeowners have adjustable-rate mortgages, which means their rates change over time.。Many borrowers can no longer afford to repay their loans when interest rates rise, and many suffer a double whammy when they find their homes are worth less than their mortgages。
As homeowners defaulted and foreclosures spread, banks began to struggle to make as many loans as they could, even to qualified consumers and businesses.。Without access to financing, companies have had to cut spending and investment, including jobs.。Rising unemployment of up to 10% means less demand for goods and services, further exacerbating the economic contraction。Despite legislation designed to stimulate the economy, millions of Americans have lost their savings, homes and jobs。
Is there a recession in the US in 2020??
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