Oil prices stayed slightly lower as the risk of hostilities between Israel and Iran diminished.

U.S. inflation continues to warn, and OPEC says latest supply cuts are blocked, with a combination of headwinds causing oil prices to fall。

The Red Sea crisis does provide short-term support for oil prices, but we also see that energy stocks have not performed well recently, being the only one of the S & P 11 sectors to move lower in the last three months。

International oil prices have recently risen rapidly and are now hovering around $90, with the sword pointing to $100.。On the news, this rally in oil prices was mainly affected by the Russian ban on gasoline and diesel exports, which in turn pushed oil prices up。On September 21, in order to stabilize domestic diesel prices, Russia suddenly announced that it had decided to temporarily ban the export of gasoline and diesel to all countries except Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.。Since Russia is the world's largest seaborne exporter of diesel fuels, the move has undoubtedly stuck the necks of major importing countries。Supply reduction, demand is not met, the market has been optimistic that oil prices continue to rise, the well-known investment bank Xiaomo directly shouted, cloth oil will rise to $150 in the future。However, excessive enthusiasm is gradually translating into market concerns, and the upward path for oil prices will never be smooth.。Citi took the lead in pointing out that while short-term crude oil may continue to rise to $100 in the face of export restrictions, once oil prices exceed $90, rising oil prices will stimulate suppliers to put in more energy supplies, thus quickly covering demand in the short term, causing the crude oil rally to stop abruptly.。Even a temporary increase in prices could lead to a further fall in oil prices next year.。UBS's view and Citi is not bad, UBS said that although oil prices in the short term can break the $100 mark, but in the next 12 months will be difficult to sustain more than $100, because high oil prices will weaken demand growth next year。Indeed, if oil prices do rise to unattainable levels, the corresponding demand in the market will gradually decrease, no one will pay for high oil prices, no matter how strong the fundamentals can not support it.。UBS believes that in the coming months, the price of Brent crude oil will remain around the current level, that is, in the range of $90 to $100。

September 19, Brent crude oil hit a new high again, hitting $95 / barrel。Brent crude is up 30% in the past three months and reaches its highest level since November 2022。