September 19, Brent crude oil hit a new high again, hitting $95 / barrel。As of press time, Brent crude at 95.$12 / barrel。

Notably, Brent crude is up 30% in the past three months and reaching its highest level since November 2022.。Oil prices have risen in 10 of the last 12 weeks。The benchmark Brent crude index has been in overbought territory for the seventh consecutive session, data show。

                       

The "driving force" behind the rise in international oil prices

                   

The continued rise in international oil prices is closely related to the production cuts of the world's major oil-producing countries.。

Saudi Arabia has led the way in cutting output from OPEC and its allies since April.。Saudi Arabia first announced a 500,000 barrel daily production cut, then raised the daily production cut to 1 million barrels in July.。Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia again announced that it would extend the 1 million barrels per day production cut until the end of the year, much to the surprise of the market.。

Subsequently, as an OPEC + member and the world's second-largest oil exporter, Russia quickly followed up by announcing that it would extend the 300,000-barrel-a-day production cut until the end of the year, once again increasing crude oil supply tensions, and international oil prices rose in response.。

In addition, after Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to the monthly report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil production in the main shale oil producing areas in the United States in October is expected to decline for the third consecutive month, falling to the lowest level since May 2023.。

The slowdown on the supply side continues to stimulate oil prices, and on the demand side, crude oil bulls are also favorable.。It is understood that China, a major global oil importer, saw a rebound in industrial output and consumer spending data in July, and Chinese refiners increased production driven by strong export profits, which also contributed to the rise in oil prices.。

The policies of the world's major central banks are also constantly influencing the trend of international oil prices.。In the United States, although high oil prices have become the main culprit of high inflation in the United States, according to market expectations, the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its September meeting, which will boost the economy to some extent, thereby stimulating oil prices.。

Today, the RBA has taken the lead in its decision to keep its benchmark cash rate at 4.1% unchanged, a good start to "Super Central Bank Week"。According to the minutes, the Fed opted to hold back amid concerns that successive rate hikes since May 2022 could slow the economy more severely than expected.。However, the RBA has made it clear in the minutes that it took note of the sharp rise in fuel prices recorded in August, which could set the stage for the outlook for international oil prices。

For its part, the Bank of England is forecast to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week.。The Bank of Japan is also expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged this week as the economic outlook remains uncertain。

This suggests that the Bank of England is likely to be the only major developed country bank to raise policy rates during this "Super Central Bank Week."。The benchmark interest rates of the three major countries, the United States, Australia and Japan, remain unchanged, or will once again boost the international crude oil market.。

         

Will oil prices return to the "hundred-dollar era"?？

          

In response to the recent sharp rise in international oil prices, OPEC said that the daily oil shortfall in the next three months will reach 3.3 million barrels as global demand exceeds supply.。Oil prices could soon top $100 a barrel, analysts warn。In addition, a number of banks have also begun to update their forecasts, believing that oil prices are likely to exceed $100 per barrel this year.。

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Saxo Bank, said prices had risen "relentlessly" since late June and believed they could rise further.。

"The overall picture is that Saudi Arabia and Russia are firmly in control of the oil market.。Schieldrop said, "We are very likely to see Brent crude futures prices exceed $100 / barrel."。Now it is less than $5 / barrel from that level, only some sound is needed to push it above that level ($100 / barrel)。"

Schieldrop added that some measures of oil prices have now exceeded $100 per barrel, with Asian Tupi (Tupi) crude trading at 101 last week.$3 / barrel。He said continued restraint on production by Russia and Saudi Arabia meant crude inventories in the United States, major European Union countries and Japan fell by about 23 million barrels in August.。

ANZ analysts also said that production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to a shortfall of 2 million barrels per day in oil production in the fourth quarter, and the subsequent reduction in inventories could put the market at risk of a further spike in oil prices in 2024.。

Citi also updated its forecast on Monday, saying the price of Brent crude could top $100 a barrel this year.。But Citi believes that the rise in oil prices is only a short-term matter, oil prices continue to rise there is not much room, the follow-up may fall。

Ed Morse, head of global commodities research at Citi, and his team wrote in a letter to investors: "Saudi Arabia's intention to keep oil out of the market while Russia maintains some level of export restrictions suggests that, other things being equal, oil prices will rise in the short term, but given that supply is growing faster than demand (except Saudi / Russian), the $90 price looks unsustainable.。He added: "Rising prices in the short term could give prices more downside next year.。"

Looking ahead, Citi analysts expect oil prices to average $84 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and fall to a range below $70 in 2024.。