August 1st Asian market, international oil prices continued the previous trading day's gains due to concerns over the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. As of the time of writing, the global crude oil benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose by 71 cents, or 0.9%, to $81.55 a barrel; WTI crude oil futures rose by 76 cents, or 1%, to $78.67 a barrel.

On Wednesday, the political bureau leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran, shocking the Middle East and the world. According to media reports citing three informed Iranian officials, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct strike against Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran.

The report stated that Khamenei said in a statement: "The act of the Zionist criminal and terrorist regime has paved the way for its own severe punishment, and we believe it is our responsibility to avenge the blood of Haniyeh shed on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

The report also stated that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also accused Israel of killing Haniyeh in Tehran that day and vowed to make Israel "regret" this "cowardly act."

Pezeshkian wrote on social platform X, "Iran will defend its territorial integrity, honor, pride, and dignity, making the terrorist aggressor regret its cowardly act," and he also paid tribute to the "brave leader" Haniyeh.

So far, the Gaza war caused by Israel and Hamas has lasted for 10 months, and with Iran's involvement, this war may evolve into a broader Middle East war, which may lead to an interruption of oil supply in the region.

As one of the main oil-producing countries in the Middle East, Iran's crude oil production is about 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for about 3% of the global oil market. According to UBS calculations, any interruption of Iran's crude oil supply due to sanctions or affected oil facilities could cause Brent oil to break through $100 a barrel.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar stated that the oil market has reason to worry that Haniyeh's assassination will make Iran more directly involved in the war with Israel, which could endanger Iran's oil supply and related infrastructure.

Dhar continued to say that the market would be wary of Iran's ability to exacerbate tensions by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, as blocking this key waterway would threaten 15-20% of the world's oil supply transportation, and the capacity of alternative pipelines to bypass such a blockade is limited.

The rise in international oil prices also benefited from a series of data released by the United States and the weakening of the US dollar.

According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, as of the week ending July 26, strong export demand pushed US crude oil inventories down by 3.4 million barrels to 433 million barrels.

At the same time, the US dollar index expanded the decline of the previous trading day on Thursday.

On Wednesday, the US dollar index fell by 0.4%, closing at 104.05, and the lowest during the day touched 103.92, the lowest since July 18. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bonds fell by 2.61%, falling for five consecutive trading days, the lowest during the day touched 4.031%, the lowest since March 8, closing at 1.033%.

In July, the Federal Reserve continued to keep interest rates unchanged but opened the door for a rate cut in September, the US dollar fell, and the yield on US bonds fell. Since international crude oil is priced in US dollars, a weaker US dollar can stimulate the demand for oil by investors holding other currencies.