On September 13th, as the Francine storm disrupted crude oil production and ahead of the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, risk sentiment swept across broader markets, leading to oil's first weekly gain in a month.

Specifically, Brent crude oil rose above $72 per barrel, marking its third consecutive trading day of increases and pushing its weekly gain to nearly 2%, while WTI crude oil traded below $70.

Although Francine's power has now weakened from its previous hurricane level, the disaster still led to significant shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico, which helped to push oil prices higher. Additionally, in the broader financial markets, the weakening of the US dollar also boosted commodity prices.

This quarter, due to concerns about the outlook for Chinese demand, crude oil fell by 16% during the period. The International Energy Agency stated in its monthly report that global consumption growth in the first half of the year hit its lowest level since the pandemic as China's economy cooled. Against this backdrop, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) made a decision to postpone its planned increase in oil production.

The IEA said that China's demand contracted for the fourth consecutive month in July, while fuel use elsewhere was "at best lukewarm." The report also stated that the global demand outlook for next year seems even more bleak, with oil consumption expected to be in surplus every quarter of next year, even if OPEC+ has gradually abandoned production increases.

In response, Vivek Dhar, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said, "The overarching theme for the rest of the year is weakening Chinese demand and OPEC+'s subsequent strategy around potentially defending market share in this sluggish demand environment."

On the other hand, the situation with crude oil contract spreads is also mixed. Although Brent spreads and oil prices strengthened in tandem this week, they are still narrower than the previous month's levels. In contango trading, the figure ended up at 57 cents per barrel, compared with 76 cents a month earlier.

Earlier this week, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APPEC) meeting in Singapore, oil trading giants Trafigura and Gunvor also expressed pessimistic views on prices and demand.

Ben Luckock, Trafigura's head of global oil, said on Monday morning that he expected Brent prices to fall to the $60 range, though he warned that traders should not put all their eggs in a short basket. He said the price of Brent oil "may enter the $60 range relatively soon."

Torbjorn Tornqvist, co-founder and chairman of Gunvor, said that the fair value of Brent oil is currently $70 due to oversupply. Tornqvist said the problem with oversupply is not OPEC+ policy, but rather the organization's inability to control the growth of non-OPEC+ supply.

Tim Drayson, head of economics at Legal & General Investment Management and a former UK Treasury official, said that if oil prices hit $60 in 2025, "the likelihood of a soft landing will increase, which applies to both Europe and the US." "Overall, this would be a net positive for global interest rates to come down and help central banks return to neutral."

After cooling inflation and signs of a slowdown in the labor market, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates at next week's meeting, with speculation that policymakers may opt for a 50 basis point cut.