The Federal Reserve released a national economic situation survey report (also known as the "Beige Book"). The report showed that U.S. economic activity remained stagnant from September to early October, and the number of corporate recruiters increased. The "Beige Book" affirmed the results of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation, saying that inflationary pressures in the United States continue to ease. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation" The probability that the Fed will drop 25 basis points by November is 93% The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged is 7%; The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged by December is 2.1% The cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 32.6% The cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 65.4% The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 0%

The Bank of Canada announced a 50 basis point rate cut to reduce the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 3.75%. This is the fourth consecutive time the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates, and has cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times previously. Perhaps the main reason for the Bank of Canada's sudden sharp interest rate cut is that the downside risks to the Canadian economy are increasing. Previously, many institutions believed that the Bank of Canada would further cut interest rates to prevent the economic weakness from continuing into 2025, and it is expected to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in December. The Bank of Canada said that the timing and pace of future interest rate cuts will be guided by upcoming data, reiterating that if the economy develops in line with expectations, further interest rates may be cut significantly. The aim is to boost economic growth and keep inflation near 2%. Slowing business/consumer spending is the biggest downside risk under CPI.

sino-us economic working group holds fifth meeting beijing, september 19-20。China and the United States communicate on macroeconomic situation and policies, global challenges and other issues。The Chinese side expressed its solemn concern over the imposition of tariffs by the United States on China, restrictions on investment in China, Russian-related sanctions and the impact on the interests of Chinese enterprises, and the two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication.。At a critical point in time for the Fed to open its first rate cut in four years, the U.S. and China can sit down and talk face-to-face to help guard against risks。

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on September 18, local time, that it would cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points。Down to 4.75% to 5.The level between 00% This is also the first time in 4 years that the Fed has cut interest rates。Almost every cycle of interest rate cuts in history has been accompanied by a recession in the U.S. economy.。

Did everyone watch the first football match of the Asian Games?？With a rare outstanding performance, China beat India 5-1 to get off to a good start in the group stage。You know, when China plays India, the media will arrange a name, that is, "Earth Derby."。Why do you say that?？It is because India and China are the two most populous countries in the world, the total population of nearly 3 billion people, accounting for 35% of the total population of the earth, such a large population base to choose 22 people to play the game, that is not the "earth people war"?？Although in terms of population, India is the eldest and China is the second, but economically, the eldest is far behind the second.。According to statistics, China currently accounts for 18% of the world's economic output, while India accounts for only 3%, and the two are not at the same level at all.。However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi always regards China as an imaginary enemy, hoping to gradually surpass Germany and Japan in the next five years and become the world's third largest economy after China, turning into a real "third brother" of the world.。Modi is really not satisfied, China's population of 1.4 billion, we India's population of 1.4 billion, are 1.4 billion, why can't I economic volume？After Modi's economic plan, the Indian media, which was really good, analyzed in detail the time for India to fully catch up with China, only to scare Modi。India lags behind China almost across the board, and to catch up, it takes at least 16 from the median..5 years! Sadly, among the many gaps, India and China are the furthest behind in patented technology, a full 21 years behind.。And India, known as the "Great Power Cemetery," is struggling to improve its patented technology after driving out the major factories.。All day thinking about how to catch up with others, it is better to create a healthier business environment, humbly learn from excellent foreign investors, put their own soft power up first, and then consider who to surpass.。

Recently, the "1989" re-recording version of the launch and the mold Taylor Swift's heat pushed up, and now, the influence of the "country singer" from the United States can be far from limited to the United States, in the world, as long as it is mold concert venue, will greatly drive the local consumption level。According to a survey conducted by the research organization QuestionPro, as long as the audience who participated in the "Mildew" concert, the average consumption was around $1,300, which translates into RMB, which is nearly 10,000 yuan, which is a rather exaggerated figure.。This shows that every time Mildew starts a tour, plus air tickets, hotels, beer and skittles, it will have a total economic impact of more than $5 billion in the local area, with the power hanging over all the top tape anchors.。According to statistics, if Taylor Swift were an economy, one year's concerts would produce more than 50 countries' GDP!You can look forward to, in order to obtain such a huge capacity to carry goods, the future between cities, will not be like robbing the right to host the Olympic Games as musty concert.？

Halloween selection Trick or treat？The answer to the stock market is, of course, treat! Research shows that Halloween is the best time of the year to enter the market to buy stocks, because with Halloween as the midpoint, the return of the stock market in the second half of the year is significantly higher than the return of the first half of the year。According to economists, in the six months after Halloween each year, the average annualized return of 65 stock markets around the world is a full three times higher than in the six months before Halloween, an effect also known as the mysterious "Halloween effect."。Why this magical Halloween effect？At present, economists in various countries can not say why。There is a saying that before Halloween, investors in the northern hemisphere began to take summer vacations, which had an impact on stock market activity, so yields were not high;。During these important holidays, Americans will spend desperately to boost the economy, and the stock market is likely to come out of a wave。

Wells Fargo says late payments on credit card balances are on the rise, which could be a warning sign that the U.S. economy is about to face difficult times。

At 4 p.m. Eastern time on May 16, the 2023 Tesla shareholders' meeting was held as scheduled at the Super Factory in Austin, Texas。At this conference, Tesla CEO Elon Musk delivered a speech to shareholders, and he expressed his views and responses on the macroeconomic situation, Cybertruck delivery, FSD autonomous driving, new product planning, and whether he will succeed.。