Recently, Marko Kolanovic, chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, a well-known investment bank, once again predicted the future of U.S. stocks, saying that U.S. stocks may continue to fall, one of the reasons is: weak consumption.。In a report, Kolanovic said that by his count, U.S. consumers have spent all of their excess savings during the epidemic, which at one point amounted to $2 trillion, but that this strong spending money has been squandered by Americans。In addition, there is a big thunder buried in the U.S. consumer market, which is that starting in October this year, U.S. student loans will need to be repaid。Due to the high cost of tuition at American universities, many families have to apply for student loans to help their children finish college。In 2020, about 68 percent of undergraduate students applied for federal student aid, according to the Office of Federal Student Aid, which includes federal loans, grants and work-study programs.。The loan has to some extent increased the economic pressure on American families and limited their desire to spend, but under certain conditions, the U.S. government can suspend the repayment of student loans and "untie" American families, which usually occurs in financial difficulties, emergencies or other special circumstances.。For example, U.S. President Biden first announced his student loan forgiveness program in August 2022, under which the U.S. government would forgive $400 billion in federal student debt and help about 20 million Americans.。For the consumer market, the program's effect was almost immediate, with U.S. consumer spending increasing by $113 billion over the next month, an increase of 0.6%, led by home and new car sales。However, if student loans need to be repaid again, this will undoubtedly siphon off some of the market's liquidity, which could then hit the economy.。

Therefore, for the year-on-year data, the inflation data for the same period last year will have a significant impact on the trend of the PCE data released this time, which is also known as the "base effect."。