On December 22, local time, U.S. President-elect Trump said in a speech in Phoenix, the capital of Arizona, that he was in favor of TikTok continuing to operate in the United States for a period of time. He had previously met with TikTok CEO Zhou Shouzi at Mar-a-Lago to bring about a change in the fate of the platform. The main reason for Trump's softened attitude toward TikTok is election data. In his speech, he emphasized that with the help of the TikTok platform, which achieved record views, the Republican Party achieved an astonishing 36% lead among young voters, an unprecedented achievement. Currently, the TikTok ban case has been transferred to the U.S. Supreme Court, and a hearing will be held on January 10, 2025. If Trump changes his policy stance after taking office, the app, which has 170 million U.S. users, may escape the fate of being forced to sell.

According to US media reports, the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China) sent an email to member companies on the 21st, saying that the US Department of Commerce BIS will announce the expansion of export restrictions on Chinese semiconductor companies next Thursday "before the Thanksgiving holiday", which may affect as many as 200 chip companies, covering HBM (high-bandwidth memory) chips and related products such as AI and semiconductors, restricting most U.S. suppliers from shipping to target companies. According to the report, if the news is true, it indicates that the Biden administration is advancing plans to further crack down on China's semiconductor access, even though Trump's second term will begin in January next year. Another set of rules restricting the export of HBM chips to China is expected to be announced next month as part of a broader AI plan.

According to German media reports on November 22, Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament’s Trade Committee, said that the EU must readjust its competition policy after Trump enters the White House. He said there was hope for a deal at least in the tariff dispute over Chinese electric vehicles. As for German Chancellor Scholz's firm opposition to the EU's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, Bernd Lange believes that Scholz has a different assessment of China's electric vehicle tariffs because German manufacturers have a market in China. Germany is concerned that China may backlash, affecting these manufacturers in the Chinese market. In addition, the EU is still negotiating with China on electric vehicles and is about to reach a solution with China to eliminate tariffs.

The German Metals Union held a press conference in Wolfsburg, where Volkswagen is headquartered, on November 20, local time, and once again clearly opposed the salary cuts, layoffs and factory closures proposed by Volkswagen management. The union said that in order to reduce the company's production costs, it can accept reducing working hours to retain more jobs, and incorporate part of the planned increase in workers' wages and bonuses into a "future fund" to help companies cope with risks. The union estimates that these measures can help Volkswagen reduce labor costs by 1.5 billion euros. If this plan is not accepted by management, a "large-scale strike never seen before in this country" will be held from December 1.

After the market closed on November 20, local time, NVIDIA announced its third-quarter financial report. In the third quarter, NVIDIA's sales were approximately US$37.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94%. The company forecasts further year-over-year growth of approximately 70% in the fourth quarter, down from the 265% annual growth rate in the same period last year. In a previous earnings call, Huang Jen-Hsun expressed confidence in the tariffs that the Trump administration may impose: "Of course we will support whatever decision the new administration makes."

Eight years in a row, stock market capitalization fourth in the world, what is India doing right?。In fact, the Indian market is quite old-fashioned, and the degree of foreign investment openness is quite high.。Looking back at the Mumbai index over the past decade, the overall trend is indeed quite stable, except for two periods of volatility.。Take the Asian market Vietnam as a comparison, and all the way up the Mumbai index, if you describe the big A is as stable as an old dog, then the Vietnam index is a short-term fast speculation harvest.。So in addition to foreign investment, the Indian market still has its own fundamentals to support。Because their index components are more reasonable, the overall market trend and economic growth are almost proportional.。And the Indian market in 1992 to implement the registration system, to be listed on the Indian enterprises not only need to go through layers of checks, after listing also face a very strict regulatory mechanism.。In addition, the Indian stock market is fueled by their ambitions, the huge population makes India the world's most populous country, and the group structure is relatively young, for many foreign companies, this is a growing market, India has thus become the beneficiary of the industrial transfer.。Apple expands capacity in India, and even Tesla plans to enter the Indian super factory within two years。More importantly, India is also a big country to engage in geography to draw the object, so in recent years they have been in the international arena, the United States of America's strong support has also inspired India to promote Indian manufacturing to the world and the internationalization of the rupee's vigorous ambition.。So the Indian market, like India as a country, is actually taking the long-term route of fishing for big fish.。So let's really not look down upon India。

Foxconn is going to invest in India again。Less than four months after its last exit from India, Foxconn has spent another $1.5 billion to build a new plant in India.。Is Foxconn, which has withdrawn its capital for a while and expanded for a while, looking for a way out for itself?？I think the high probability of their operation is also due to Apple's backing.。Although Foxconn has fallen out of favor in the field of contract manufacturing in the past two years, it is still Apple's largest contract manufacturer and is reluctant to place large orders from Apple.。And Apple had already planned to take the iphone17 production line out of China and leave it to India to start research and development to help India expand its production capacity.。So Foxconn's new plant in India is essentially to meet the operational needs of Apple suppliers.。I don't think we can underestimate India, which is backed by the United States to enjoy the cool.。But India is really a magical land, the ten billion subsidy plan announced the year before last to draw so many pie for foreign companies, to now have not spent a penny。But even so, there are still many companies to seek cooperation。In fact, Foxconn has already opened a number of investment projects in India in addition to the planned new plant.。So for many companies, India is a growing market, and everyone is eager to get a piece of it.。But it may be because of too much favor, India has been a bit of a drift in the past two years, but be wary of the fact that India to undertake the industrial transfer of refraction is the United States to neutralize the long-term strategy, Apple's expansion in the Indian market corresponds to the shrinking of China's production lines.。In the past four years, India's exports to the United States have increased by 44%, while China's exports to the United States have declined by 10%, so don't underestimate India。

Argentina recently welcomed such a painting style of new president。This new president, Millet, has been a rocker, a footballer, and an economist.。However, some netizens believe that he may have another identity, that is, the last president in Argentine history.。As the saying goes, a new official takes on three fires.。The first fire of this Millet took office burned to his own people, directly cut down government departments, useless to cancel, less people on the merger, the main focus is a fiscal does not support idle people; the second fire, Millet burned the central bank of Argentina。Millay said, anyway, now that inflation in Argentina is so severe, the Argentine peso is worthless at all, and it is estimated that no further rescue will be saved, and the entire Argentine currency will be used in dollars and virtual coins in the future.。THIRD FIRE, MILLE BURNS ARGENTINA'S FOREIGN POLICY。The main one is the total denial of former President Fernandez.。In August this year, Fernandez said he would join the BRICS countries and increase cooperation with China.。But when it came to the Millet government, there was a 180-degree reversal of its attitude towards China, clamoring to sever cooperation with China, and ordering a halt to its membership in the BRICS, which caught China off guard.。In fact, Millet's call for full dollarization makes sense in theory.。But where does the dollar come from?？The solution given by the new president is to realize the equity assets, that is, to sell the state assets held by the Argentine government, which means that in the short term Argentina's economy can catch its breath, but in the long run, the result is likely to be Argentina's monetary policy is led by the nose, or even become a financial colony in the practical sense.。But now Argentina has no time to think about the future

Recently, according to Indian media reports, as one of Apple's largest foundries, for nearly three years, Chinese company Lixun Precision has been trying to expand its business in India and hopes to invest in a factory in India to assemble Apple mobile phones.。However, India's attitude towards foreign investment has led Lixun Precision to dismiss plans to build a factory in India and instead add an additional 3.$300 million investment to expand production in Vietnam。This is the second well-known Chinese company to do so recently.。As early as 2021, BYD also tried to expand its presence in India, but the status of a Chinese-owned company has stymied India's Foreign Direct Investment Authority.。Finally in May this year, BYD announced that it would shift to Vietnam, investing more than 1.800 million U.S. dollars for the production of electronic components, compared to India's attitude towards foreign investment, Vietnam is a completely different look, choose to pragmatic money。India has always been known as a foreign-funded harvester, despite having the world's largest consumer potential market, but India makes money India spends, a separate investment environment that wants to take home has made many foreign companies back down.。In addition to foreign companies that have not yet entered the Indian market, those that are already in the Indian market are also mixed in their hearts.。Predictably, if India does not change its attitude towards foreign companies, it will only see more and more foreign companies leave India, and Modi's Made in India will become completely empty talk.。

According to Indian media reports, India's senior management of corporate affairs revealed that in the first three months of this year, the number of new foreign companies in India was only one。Although the United States has been vigorously supporting India and even wants to give the Apple supply chain to India, in the past five years, a total of 470 new foreign companies have been added to India, and 550 have run away.。It seems that India's business environment is really frightening.。Many established companies in Europe and the United States have not escaped, it is indiscriminate attacks, not to mention India's treatment of Chinese companies.。India is so suppressed, on the one hand, because its own strength is not hard enough, and on the other hand, the United States has played a role in it, for the United States, India is in addition to Vietnam, Mexico, the most able to replace China's production base, the past four years, India's exports to the United States increased by 44%, while China's exports to the United States fell by 10%。This makes India very excited.。How is India developing Made in India?？On the one hand, India has a huge deficit with China, by means of balancing the trade structure, and on the other hand, by imposing limits on Chinese companies and commodities to convey its demands, thus making compromises and concessions on certain issues.。It seems that India also wants to realize its dream of being a world power with its own manufacturing industry.。India should adopt an open and inclusive attitude to encourage foreign investment and cooperation。Through cooperation with foreign companies, India can learn from advanced technology and management experience, improve its own industrial level, and achieve long-term economic stability and sustainable development.。Only in this way can India really attract foreign investment and become a big country friendly to foreign enterprises。

The United States has laid a net on Chinese technology, and Nvidia is the first to sit still.。Recently, Nvidia has developed three new improved versions of AI chips for China, which is an improved version of the original H100.。Is this a self-help operation by Nvidia？To put it bluntly, the impact of U.S. chip controls on the Chinese market today has been much worse than before, after all, Huawei has begun to break through the blockade.。As early as last October, the United States a paper ban has threatened the United States chip three big jobs, but Nvidia or later another way, to China's whole two reduced 1 / 3 performance of the special chip, that is to say, Nvidia is not the first time to engage in improvement, the old United States at that time is also a blind eye, but now Biden changed his mind, last month directly for the evaporation of the new round of AI chip export control。China is the world's largest chip market, Nvidia is certainly not willing to give up the Chinese market, not willing to do that？Get up and continue to improve the chip, and then make an improvement on the original process, but what are the outstanding advantages of these so-called improved chips over Chinese chips?？After all, this is still a disguised dumping method.

Japan is really going to throw caution to the wind this time.。Just days after China announced its trillion-dollar national debt plan, Japan also announced a huge economic stimulus package totaling 17 trillion yen, equivalent to 820 billion yuan.。first, china's national debt program is aimed at promoting economic growth and providing financial support for development, which is a large number, but china's economic scale is correspondingly huge,。The situation in Japan is slightly different, their economy is relatively small, only 1 / 4 of China's, but the amount of stimulus they announced is huge, why？Because the problems they face are different。Japan's main goal is to save their currency, the yen, whose value fell sharply at one point, posing a threat to their economic stability。In order to maintain the yen exchange rate, the most direct way is to buy dollars through central bank intervention in the market and then convert them into yen。However, the U.S. is reluctant to see Japan continue to sell their U.S. bonds, which is complicating this approach。Another solution is to promote economic growth.。But Japan's economic growth has been sluggish。This year, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that Japan's real economic growth rate will be only zero..5%, may be overtaken by other countries, from the world's third to fourth。Raising interest rates is another option.。But since Japan's debt is already high, which could exacerbate fiscal pressures, they chose to implement a massive economic stimulus plan to stimulate growth, raise inflation and lower the yen.。However, this stimulus plan also has risks, Japan's national debt is already quite high, has not yet taken into account the local government debt, if an additional 1 trillion national debt, will be a greater burden on the national finances。In summary, both China and Japan are taking steps to address their respective economic challenges。Japan's stimulus plan aims to save currency value。These policies are accompanied by risks and challenges, and do you think this Japanese stimulus is useful？

The recent EU sanctions against China's export industry are really wave after wave, first on October 4, the EU announced the opening of a countervailing investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, and now, there is news that the EU wants to impose new tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.？At present, there has been news that the United States and the European Union are secretly negotiating, will be held on the 20th of this month, the European and American steel and aluminum trade summit announced the adoption of a so-called "global sustainable steel and aluminum agreement."。Regardless of how high the name is, this is actually a sanctions agreement.。Under the agreement, the EU will impose new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from countries and regions, including China, to suppress Chinese steel and aluminum exporters.。The EU's tax on Chinese exporters is subject to U.S. instructions, and in return, the U.S. promises that it will no longer impose tariffs on EU steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. in the future, reducing the burden on EU steel companies.。The U.S. has its own calculations, with EU officials saying President Biden needs to protect jobs for steelworkers in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio to win votes for himself in next year's election。Professionals also revealed that the EU and the EU and the United States are forming a "common front" against China's trade exports, in addition to electric vehicles and steel, the EU is also ready to investigate the development of China's wind turbine manufacturers.。

Recently, nearly 1 of Ford, GM, and Stellantis.30,000 UAW workers join forces for sensational strike action。They made four major demands on their respective employers: a 36 per cent pay rise, improved job security, an increase in retirees' wages and a 32-hour work week, or a four-day work week.。So far, Stellantis, eager to quell the strike, has proposed a compromise that would give workers a 21 percent raise, but the UAW is not paying for the package。According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there have been 23 mass strikes in the U.S. since 2022, compared to an average of 16 mass strikes per year over the past decade.。There have been frequent strikes in the United States recently for two main reasons.。First, the U.S. labor market continues to be in short supply.。After the epidemic, the U.S. economy recovered rapidly and needed to recruit a large labor force in the short term, and the U.S. labor market remained in short supply in the short term, a situation that gave workers more say。When workers dominate, they put more conditions on employers to ensure that wages actually increase。Second, the continued high inflation in the United States has weakened the purchasing power of money in the hands of American workers, making them unable to feel the dividends of wage growth.。According to the statistics, while household incomes in the United States have generally picked up in 2023, since most of the union wage agreements were reached before inflation rose sharply, the real level of consumption of U.S. workers is still being shattered by the inflation shock。According to the United Auto Workers, since 2019, auto workers' wages have increased by only 6% a year, and their quality of life has been greatly reduced.。

Unexpectedly, Birmingham, the second largest city in the UK, went bankrupt! On September 5, local time, the Birmingham City Council, the UK's administrative body, issued a document stating that due to high debt and a financial shortfall of up to £87 million, it would immediately stop all new government spending, in addition to maintaining public services and other statutory obligations to protect the vulnerable.。When the local government of the United Kingdom issued this "bad" statement, it actually triggered section 114 of the Local Government Finance Act 1988, which states that if the highest financial officer of a local government determines that the government may not be able to spend less in a given financial year, he has the power and responsibility to suspend government-related spending.。Over time, the publication of section 144 became a common practice in the bankruptcy of local governments in the UK。As the second largest city in England by GDP, after London, how could Birmingham fall into bankruptcy?？Two things happened, let Birmingham's financial step by step to collapse。The first was in 2012, when the UK's highest court ruled that Birmingham discriminated against women workers over pay and must pay compensation.。As a result, Birmingham has paid out a total of £1.1 billion in claims over the past decade, but claims spending is still growing at a staggering £5 million to £14 million a year.。The second thing is the government procurement of Oracle IT management system, originally expected to cost 19 million pounds can be taken, but due to various reasons, the project was delayed for three years, the cost soared, as high as 100 million pounds。Birmingham went bankrupt and the British government left it alone.？The answer is, no matter! British Prime Minister Sunak's attitude is clear, he said that the central government's responsibility is not to rescue the financial management of the poor local council。

Is it a good thing or a bad thing for TSMC to build factories everywhere?？First go to the United States, the factory is built, the people are in place, it seems that everything is ready。Now it has gone to Germany again, TSMC has been revealed to have been officially approved to build a plant in Germany, focusing on 28nm capacity chips with a total investment of more than 10 billion euros, which will be TSMC's first plant in Europe.。As an enterprise, TSMC does have its helplessness, but the German plant, ah, may not go more smoothly than the American plant.。As an outsider, TSMC's U.S. plant hasn't opened yet, but the turmoil is one after another, the cost is high, there is still a shortage of people, and the people are not well managed.。Considering that the lack of skills of American workers will lead to delays in production, TSMC wanted to send someone from Taiwan to add a hand, but it was slapped by the old US, saying that TSMC was an excuse to bring in lower-paid foreign workers.。Although the latter clarification is a misunderstanding, but presumably life will not be better。And TSMC's German factories will also face labor shortages, even if the local in order to support manufacturers, the introduction of some subsidy policies, creating a lot of jobs, but the trend of Germany's aging population is really serious, which in the end who should fill the pit?？At this time, Germany is still evaluating the replacement of all Huawei equipment in the railway system.。The reason why Germany agreed to subsidize TSMC is that it also wants to transfer technology and talent, and transfer more production lines to the local market in order to reduce its dependence on Asian countries.。Not to mention BenQ's lesson, it's probably unknown whether TSMC's German plant will open on schedule.。

Just into August, the U.S. Treasury Department exploded a big thunder: the world's leading rating agencies announced that the U.S. long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA +, as never play unprepared battle Fitch, but at this time announced the downgrade, exactly why？Market participants believe that Fitch's final decision to downgrade the U.S. default rating of the "fuse," is the U.S. Treasury Department released on July 31, the third quarter of the U.S. financing plan.。Under the plan, the U.S. Treasury will borrow about $1 trillion in debt in the third quarter of 2023, nearly $300 billion more than previously announced plans to issue debt.。That's not all, and on top of that, the U.S. is expected to borrow about $852 billion more in debt in the fourth quarter, which will be another debt surge of nearly $100 billion.。Faced with such a high debt scale, the U.S. Treasury Department said there are two main reasons for the huge debt issuance, first, the current low cash balance in the fiscal deposit account, and second, the expected future fiscal revenue is low, but the expenditure is higher.。It's an indisputable fact that the U.S. government is high on fiscal denunciations in 2023, so where did all that money go?？Based on data for the first nine months of fiscal 2023, there were four projects with large year-on-year increases in fiscal spending for the year.。First, net interest expenses, the sharp increase in this expenditure is mainly due to the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, raising the cost of debt during the year;。

Recently, Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has made waves in the capital markets。U.S. bond yields are starting to rise and U.S. stock indexes are falling, which seems to signal that disaster is coming。In these circumstances, some investors are ready to leave the market, but others believe that there is no need to worry too much about this downgrade.。Obviously, Buffett belongs to the latter.。Recently, Buffett told the media that he was not concerned about Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. and that the incident would not affect his investment strategy。In his words, the question he is considering is not whether to buy U.S. Treasuries or not, but what maturity to buy U.S. Treasuries。Of course, the stock god this speech, not standing to speak not waist pain, in order to support the U.S. Treasury bonds, he also paid real money.。According to him, his Berkshire company has recently bought $10 billion in U.S. Treasuries and is completely unafraid of Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating。Buffett always seems to have confidence in the U.S. financial system.。In April, just as the banking crisis was simmering, the investment legend had said that while the banking turmoil was not over, there should be no panic about the safety of the banking sector or deposits, as the U.S. government could step in to support depositors in all U.S. banks if necessary。At the height of the banking crisis, Buffett's statement was questioned by some in the media, and he came out again to claim that no one would lose money on a deposit in a U.S. bank, which simply could not have happened。To that end, he's even willing to make a bet with the market at $1 million.。Later, it turned out that the U.S. banking crisis did not erupt into a systemic crisis and losses were minimized。

On August 1, local time, Fitch, one of the world's three major international credit rating agencies, announced that it had downgraded the sovereign credit rating of the United States, from the original AAA rating to the current AA + rating, for example, everyone has their own "credit background," if your credit is good, every loan must be repaid, then occasionally encounter the situation of turnover, we will also rely on borrowing money to help, but, if you often do not repay the。The same is true for a country, the U.S. sovereign credit rating is a depiction of the U.S. "credit background," the highest AAA rating on behalf of the U.S. ability to repay debt is extremely strong, the risk of default is extremely low, the market can safely buy U.S. Treasury bonds.。There are two main reasons for Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating.。First, Fitch is concerned that the Biden administration's finances have begun to deteriorate and that the debt burden is high and will grow over the next three years.。Second, Fitch expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a further 25 basis points in September, and the U.S. economy may fall into a "mild" recession due to the current market environment.。Of course, Fitch's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating is not without warning.。As early as May 24 this year, Fitch announced that it would put the U.S. AAA rating on a "negative watch list" due to the standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling, and suggested a possible downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.。At the time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen had repeatedly warned Congress that if Congress failed to adjust the federal government's debt ceiling to lead to a default on its debt, it would trigger an "economic disaster."。