USD は、 EUR 、 JPY 、 GBP の 3 つの主要通貨に対して低いです。このビデオでは、トレーダーがバイアス、リスク、およびこれらの 3 つの通貨ペアの目標を決定するために従うべきテクニカルを見てみましょう。

EURUSD：
The EURUSD moved lower yesterday but held support at its rising 100-hour moving average, which starts today’s US session at a higher hurdle of 1.1311. Holding above this key MA level keeps the bias in favor of the buyers. A move below would tilt the bias in the short-term more to the downside, with the next key target being the support area between 1.1271 and 1.1275. Just below that, the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up from last week’s low comes in at 1.12495—a critical level to watch if the downside momentum builds.

USDJPY ：
The USDJPY tested the low from last Friday at 142.07 today, and found buyers at that level, rebounding to the upside. The pair now trades between that double bottom at 142.07 and the 100-hour moving average above at 143.361. A break below 142.07 would open the door toward the next key support at the swing level near 141.67. A move above would tilt the bias marginally to the upside with work to do.

GBPUSD ：
The GBPUSD broke above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3245, climbing to a new high at 1.3290. A break above that level would have traders eyeing the next upside target at 1.33124, followed by the 2024 high at 1.34323. On the downside, sellers would need to push the pair back below 1.3245 and 1.3221, with additional support at 1.32067—the high from two weeks ago, which served as a base before the latest move higher.

Today’s technical levels will be influenced by the upcoming 3 月の米国小売売上高レポート （ Adam 's post を参照 ）, where the headline figure is expected to rise by 1.3%, and 旧自動車販売 are forecast to increase by 0.3%. The 小売管理グループ, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, is projected to rise by 0.6%.

Also on the economic calendar is 工業生産 and 容量利用率, both due at 9： 15 AM ET. Expectations are for industrial production to dip by —0.2%, while capacity utilization is seen edging down to 78.0% from 78.2%. 製造出力 is expected to rise by 0.3%, a slowdown from last month’s 0.9% gain.

At 9： 45 AM ET, the カナダ銀行 （ BoC ） will announce its rate decision (see Adam's preview here). The outcome is uncertain, with markets split on whether the central bank will cut rates or hold steady. Before the recent wave of tariffs, the BoC appeared poised to slow its easing cycle. However, the expected drag on growth from those tariffs has reintroduced doubt into the market.

Despite the uncertainty, the カナダドルが強まった, with USDCAD falling to a low of 月曜日の 1.38278—its weakest level since November 2024. The pair has since rebounded and now trades near the 100 時間移動平均は 1.39149 で下落. That level will act as the near-term barometer: staying below keeps sellers in control. A move above could shift bias higher, with the 200-心理的な 1.4000 レベル近くの 1 日移動平均 serving as a key resistance target. A break above that would be more bullish for the pair.

At 10： 00 AM ET, アメリカ合衆国の企業在庫 for February are expected to rise by 0.2 パーセント, while the NAHB 住宅市場指数 for April is forecast to dip to 37, down from 39 in March.

At 10： 30 AM, the 米国の石油在庫レポート is due. Expectations are for a 原油生産量は 50 万 7 千バレル, while ガソリン株 are projected to fall by —1595 万バレル and 蒸留物在庫 by —1180 万バレル.

民間データは、ガソリンと蒸留物の予想を上回る引き下げとともに、原油の予想を上回る増強を示しました。

The key event later in the session will be 午後 1 時 30 分、パウエル議長の演説, where he will address the 経済見通し. While the Fed has often characterized tariff effects as transitory, Powell may need to acknowledge the risk that these price shocks could become more persistent—especially if inflation expectations begin to shift higher. Recent soft (i.e. survey) data from consumer and business surveys suggest that such expectations are already rising. The challenge for the Fed will be determining whether these tariffs are temporary 逆風 or eventually become 尾風 for inflation and growth under the Trump administration’s policy path.

Taking a snapshot of the markets:
米国株価は下落している, with sentiment pressured by concerns in the semiconductor sector. Nvidia の株価はプレマーケット取引で 5% 以上下落しています after the company announced it would take a 55 億ドルの費用 due to new U.S. export restrictions requiring a license for shipping its H 20 AI プロセッサ to China and other countries.

• ダウ産業平均 —41 ポイント
• S & P インデックス —43 ポイント
• NASDAQ 指数 —273 ポイント

米国債券市場では利回りは混在しています

• 2 年間の利回り 3.809% 、 —1.9 ベーシスポイント
• 5 年間の利回り 3.952% 、 —1.1 ベーシスポイント
• 10 年利回り 4.321% 不変
• 30 年利回り 4.779% 、 + 0.3 ベーシスポイント