The USDCAD broke below its 200-day moving average last Friday—a key technical development that marked the first sustained move under that level since October 7, 2024. The bearish break sparked increased downside momentum, driving the pair through multiple support zones. Most notably, the price fell below the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the September 2024 low at 1.39465, and through a prior floor near 1.3830, which had held from mid- to late-November.

The decline extended further today, reaching a session low of 1.38278, just above a swing level from December at 1.38131. That area is now a key downside target and potential support, with further selling pressure likely to eye the next support level near 1.3744, which was a swing low from July 2024. Below that, traders may target the 1.3665 zone—another key swing area from early summer.

On the upside, the rebound in today’s trade has taken the price back toward session highs near 1.3893. For buyers to begin shifting control, the first resistance comes at the broken floor-turned-ceiling at 1.3830, followed by the 1.39465 で 61.8% のリトレース. A break above that level would open the door toward the 200-1 日移動平均 1.3998—effectively 1.4000—which now serves as a major technical barrier.

これらのレベルが回復されるまで、バイアスは売り手にしっかりと留まり、いかなるラリーも本質的に是正的と見なされる可能性が高い。

主要な技術レベルの概要 ：

サポート：

• 1.3813 — 以前のスイングレベル

• 1.3744 — 7 月のスイングロー

抵抗：

• 1.3830 — 11 月のフロアが壊れた

• 1.39465 — 61.8% リトレース （ 9 月安値から 12 月高値 ）

• 1.3998 / 1.4000 — 200 日移動平均