Industry insiders are buzzing that NVIDIA has stopped accepting orders for the H20 chip since August, as it may soon be subject to U.S. export controls. Although no official notification has been received, distributors are "waiting for the latest news, and some customers' customized demands can still be met." However, this does not mean a complete stop in order acceptance, as some vendors with existing stock state they can continue taking orders.

In response to these rumors, NVIDIA stated, "We do not comment on rumors."

Last year, U.S. regulatory agencies prohibited NVIDIA from exporting high-performance chips like the A100/A800 and H100/H800 to China, citing national security. To comply with regulatory standards, NVIDIA launched three special chips based on the H100 for China, with the H20 being the most powerful, roughly one-sixth of the H100’s performance, but with no significant price reduction.

Since most domestic AI companies' application ecosystems are based on NVIDIA's CUDA platform, the H20's full compatibility, despite significant functional differences, still makes it the preferred choice for many companies. Additionally, the H20 chip has a higher HBM capacity than the H100, providing certain advantages in actual AI training and inference compared to domestic AI chips.

Investment bank Jefferies pointed out that the U.S. may impose additional restrictions on its semiconductor export policy in October this year, potentially banning the sale of the NVIDIA H20 chip. The restrictions could include but are not limited to bans on specific products, reducing chip computational capabilities, or limiting memory capacity.

According to their estimates, if the ban is implemented, NVIDIA could lose up to $12 billion in revenue from the Chinese market, which would significantly impact its sustainability in that market.

Several industry chain insiders have clearly stated that rumors about the H20 being discontinued have been circulating for a long time, and there is widespread concern about whether it will face a sales ban in the short term. There are also reports that NVIDIA is requesting the U.S. government not to enforce this decision.

However, several vendors recently received large shipments of H20, and the total expected shipments for 2024 may reach 600,000 to 700,000 units, far exceeding the 400,000 units that the market generally anticipated at the beginning of the year. It remains unclear whether the increased shipment volume is due to the news of order cutoff.

Previously, due to high demand for chips like the GB200 and A100, many major manufacturers sought to purchase them, and given the very limited production capacity of high-end chips, procurement often required allocations, with the H20 being one of them.

Chinese companies have been stockpiling NVIDIA chips, with ByteDance reportedly holding over 100,000 units and expected to place H20 orders totaling 320,000 to 330,000 units in 2024, having already received 140,000 to 150,000 units. Additionally, the company plans to purchase over 30,000 H100 chips from overseas, with possible future purchases of B200 and H200 chips.

However, the H20 chip is currently not receiving much attention, even being referred to as "insignificant," and insiders have mentioned that "major manufacturers have already stockpiled enough, while smaller firms may still have some demand."

On September 25, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang just completed his plan to sell 6 million shares set at the beginning of the year, cashing out $713 million at an average price of $118.83 per share.

Between June 14 and September 13, Huang sold shares in batches, with transaction sizes ranging from 70 shares to 75,300 shares, and the transaction prices varying from a low of $91.72 on August 5 to a high of $140.24 on June 20.

According to documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, after completing the share sales, Huang currently directly holds 75.4 million shares of NVIDIA and additionally owns 786 million shares of NVIDIA through trusts and partnerships. In the company’s latest proxy statement, Huang is listed as the largest individual shareholder.

As the biggest "darling" of the global AI boom, NVIDIA's stock price has surged over 150% since the beginning of the year. Earlier this year, NVIDIA's market value briefly surpassed $3 trillion, establishing its dominant market position, with its stock price fluctuations impacting broader markets and investor sentiment.

Since June, the stock's performance has been volatile, experiencing significant fluctuations over nearly three months. In addition to market doubts about the demand outlook for NVIDIA chips, Huang's continuous sell-offs are also an important factor affecting market confidence.