After a two-year decline, the personal computer (PC) industry seems to have come to the bottom。

Global PC market may have bottomed out, recovery will accelerate in the fourth quarter

According to a new report from research firm Gartner, preliminary results show that global PC shipments totaled 64.3 million units in the third quarter of 2023, down 9 percent from a year earlier and down 16 percent from the second quarter..6% narrowed.。Although this third quarter result means that the global PC market has declined for the eighth consecutive quarter, Gartner expects the global PC market to return to growth from the fourth quarter of this year.。

Mikako Kitakawa, chief analyst at Gartner, said: "There is evidence that the decline in the PC market has finally bottomed out.。"

Kitakawa added: "While enterprise PC demand remains weak, seasonal demand in the education market boosted third-quarter shipments.。Vendors have also made continued progress in reducing PC inventories, which are expected to return to normal by the end of 2023 as long as holiday sales do not collapse.。"

Previously, the PC market had been hit hard in the past eight quarters due to the epidemic, the global economic slowdown, inflation and rising interest rates.。PC companies performed more strongly in the early stages of the epidemic as consumer demand for home office and online entertainment rose。

But later, inflationary pressures and high interest rates made it difficult for some consumers to have enough money to buy new computers because prices and financing costs were rising.。As a result, PC shipments plunged to a multi-decade low。

In January, Gartner reported that global PC shipments fell 28 percent year-over-year..5%, the company's biggest year-over-year decline since it began tracking PC shipments in the mid-1990s.。

Today, with inventory levels falling and more people looking for newer PCs, the market seems to be improving。

"The good news for PC vendors is that the worst could be over by the end of 2023."。Kitakawa said, "Driven by the Windows 11 upgrade, the commercial PC market is ready for the next replacement cycle.。As PCs purchased during the epidemic enter the early stages of the update cycle, consumer PC demand should also begin to recover。"

Gartner expects global PC market to grow by 2024 4.9%, with growth expected in the commercial and consumer sectors。

It's not just Gartner that is optimistic about the outlook for the global PC market.。

Research firm Canalys previously issued a report mentioned that the global PC market decline in the second quarter is slowing down。Canalys data shows that total global desktop and laptop shipments fell 11% year-on-year in the second quarter..5% to 62.1 million units。Prior to this, shipments fell by more than 30% for two consecutive quarters。On a sequential basis, second-quarter shipments rose 11.9%, Canalys believes, indicating that the market is expected to accelerate the recovery in the second half of this year。

Ishan Dutt, chief analyst at Canalys, said: "After a difficult period, the PC market is showing early signs of a rebound.。Dutt said there were signs that many of the problems affecting the industry were starting to wane.。Although the global macroeconomic situation remains difficult, major industry players have consistently noted that end-user activation rates have been stronger than sales volumes.。

According to Canalys research analyst Kieren Jessop, "Positive market signals point to further improvement in the PC industry in 2023.。Inventory levels fell further in the second quarter, with 41 percent of channel partners surveyed by Canalys in June saying they had less than a week of PCs in stock.。All customer segments will continue to improve for the remainder of 2023 due to the last driver of the inventory adjustment and the strengthening of seasonal factors in the second half of the year。But Jessop also pointed out that due to the changed environment after the outbreak, consumers now mostly rank PC spending behind other categories, so it is expected that PC shipments for the full year 2023 will be lower than in 2022.。

According to Canalys, the top three market shares in the global PC market in the second quarter were Lenovo, HP and Dell.。Apple is in fourth place.。

Global Major PC Market Forecast: US and India to Outperform Average

Segmented into several major global PC markets, Canalys also gives the corresponding forecast。

One is mainland China。According to data from Canalys, PC shipments in mainland China fell 19% year-on-year in the second quarter, showing signs of slowing down.。However, Canalys expects that the recovery of the PC market in mainland China will still face challenges, with shipments expected to decline by 19% in 2023。

Canalys argues that, on the one hand, companies of all sizes are more cautious in their investment decisions amid an uncertain economic outlook。On the other hand, consumer demand remains subdued。For example, during the "618" shopping festival, consumers spent more on essentials, beauty and fashion, while spending on electronics was relatively sluggish.。According to Canalys analyst EmmaXu, "The lack of a boost in PC sales in the second quarter of 2023, despite strong promotions, suggests that consumers are unlikely to prioritize updating their devices in the near term.。"

In Western Europe, Canalys forecasts that PC shipments in Western Europe will fall by 13% and tablet shipments by 14% for the full year 2023.。Kieren Jessop, research analyst at Canalys, said: "After a difficult period in the first half of 2023, the Western European PC market is now showing signs of recovery.。Jessop believes the market has reached an inflection point.。Over the past 18 months, high inventory levels have been largely digested and the downward trend in demand has stabilized.。The region's PC market is expected to show small but sustained sequential growth for the remainder of 2023.。

Jessop added: "Markets such as Spain, Portugal and Greece should be the focus for suppliers looking for growth opportunities.。Larger high-end markets such as Germany, France and Switzerland will see a partial recovery in early 2024.。This trend will accelerate in the second half of next year as economic pressures ease。"

If you zoom into the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) region, Canalys finds that the need for PC updates is expanding。A survey of channel partners conducted by Canalys in August found that more than two-thirds of EMEA respondents offer some refurbished equipment services.。Two-thirds of respondents reported growing demand for refurbished PCs, up 10 percent since the survey was conducted in late 2021.。

Looking at the global market, the US and India regions performed better than average。

In the U.S. market, according to Canalys, U.S. PC shipments fell just 6% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, far better than the global average.。Canalys expects the U.S. PC market to fall even less in the third quarter of this year, about 4%, and the market will return to growth in the fourth quarter, up 12% year-on-year。Ishan Dutt, chief analyst at Canalys, said: "With the accumulation of channel inventory now largely clear, some of the strength of demand is now reflected in the performance of suppliers' sales shipments.。Canalys also expects the U.S. PC market to grow 9 percent in 2024 and 12 percent in 2025.。

In the Indian market, Canalys expects India's PC market shipments to decline by 9% in 2023.。Canalys is optimistic about a rebound in the Indian PC market in 2024 and 2025, and expects strong 15% growth in shipments in these two years, and this growth will spread across all categories and end-user segments.。

But the Indian PC market faces another challenge - regulation.。AshweejAithal, an analyst at Canalys, said: "The recent import restrictions imposed by the Indian government on desktops, laptops and tablets are bound to disrupt the market, especially for major foreign suppliers that have not yet started local production.。"

Aithal believes the disruption is expected to intensify by the end of 2023, as the restrictions are set to begin in November.。Therefore, in order to cope with the upcoming equipment shortage, suppliers will actively expand their inventory。Fast closing of transactions may also increase。Aithal said: "Suppliers may need additional import licenses, but the government is speeding up the licensing process to mitigate the expected price spike caused by scarcity."。"