Since last year, under the influence of multiple factors such as the Fed's "violent" interest rate hike and weak global demand。Corporate America has set off a "wave of layoffs" led by large U.S. technology companies and Wall Street giants, all looking to control costs to weather the global recession.。

U.S. tech companies cut more than 97,000 jobs in 2022, according to consultancy Challenger, Grey & Christmas, the largest layoffs since the dot-com bubble burst in 2002.。More than 80% of these occurred in the last quarter.。In addition, new job postings fell sharply at the end of 2022, according to trade group CompTIA.。

In the first half of 2023, the U.S. technology industry announced more than 140,000 job cuts, an increase of 2,353% over the same period last year.。This is the second highest total in the industry's history, after 2001.。That year, the U.S. tech industry announced more than 160,000 job cuts。

Although layoffs continue, the rate of layoffs has slowed by nearly 80% this year, on a month-on-month basis, with an overall downward trend.。"The decline in the magnitude of job cuts in the summer months is not unusual.。In fact, June was the slowest month on average in history, "Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement that it's also possible that massive job losses due to inflation and interest rates will not happen, especially if the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged.。

The downward trend of layoffs is inseparable from the popularity of AI this year.。The emergence of ChatGPT has rekindled the enthusiasm of a dead technology company, and many companies have begun to restart recruitment, especially for AI-related talent, for fear of missing out on this round of technology growth opportunities.。

According to FactSet, 110 of the S & P 500-listed companies that held earnings calls between mid-March and late May mentioned AI, a record number that was about three times the decade average.。

However, due to the scarcity of AI-related talent, especially top talent, a number of companies have poured into the track, resulting in a serious demand for the market.。To this end, the major companies have opened the "grabbing mode"。

In the field of large models, technology companies such as Microsoft and Google pay salaries of around $150,000 to $300,000 to senior software engineers.。According to data released by U.S. job site Indeed, eight of the top 10 most promising jobs in the U.S. in 2023 are technology development-related jobs, including data engineers, cloud engineers, back-end developers, site reliability engineers, machine learning engineers, and more.。And the salaries of these jobs are basically higher than the U.S. average.。

A number of technology companies in China, including Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu, have also recently released a number of recruitment information for AI-related positions.。

  

As the AI tide begins to subside

  

Although AI ignited the enthusiasm of the market, but now this enthusiasm is gradually fading。

In June, monthly traffic and independent visits to the ChatGPT site fell for the first time, according to analytics firm Sametime Web.。Independent visits to ChatGPT site fell by 5 in June.Visitors' time spent on the site also fell by 8%..5%。

ChatGPT, which reached 100 million monthly active users just two months after its launch, is the fastest growing consumer app of all time and currently has more than 1.5 billion monthly visits, making it one of the top 20 websites in the world.。

There are many reasons for the drop in traffic。For example, the company's ChatGPT app, which was released on iOS in May, drew some traffic from its website.。According to data.According to AI, as of July 4, the chatbot had more than 17 million downloads worldwide on iOS.。Plus, many companies have also launched their own generative artificial intelligence chatbots, which have also split some traffic。In addition, there is speculation that the decline in usage is related to the summer holidays, which have led to fewer students seeking homework help at ChatGPT。

David Carr, senior observation manager at Sametime web, said the reduced traffic was a sign that the novelty of chatbots was fading away.。Sarah Hindlian-Bowler, head of science and technology research at Macquarie Americas, said: "I think when users go from zero to 100 million so quickly, they have growing pains.。Large user base will lead to reduced accuracy。This has forced it to change what the model is trained on and to deal with the potential impact of regulation.。"

However, the drop in visits is not without benefits, which may help the company control the cost of running ChatGPT, which requires a lot of computing power to answer queries。OpenAI CEO Sam Altman described the cost of running the services as "jaw-dropping."。

In order to compensate for the high cost of AI, OpenAI has also tested the water for commercialization.。In addition to the free-to-use version, ChatGPT offers the option of a premium subscription, with users paying $20 a month to access its more advanced model, GPT-4.。According to YipitData's latest estimates, about 1.5 million people in the United States subscribe to the service.。

OpenAI expects $200 million in revenue this year。In addition to ChatGPT, the company is making money by selling API access to its AI models directly to developers and businesses, as well as through its partnership with Microsoft.。But the combined revenue at this stage is not in the same order of magnitude as the upfront investment, and Microsoft is said to have invested more than $10 billion in the company so far。

Although the market's enthusiasm for AI is not as high as ChatGPT just came out, the overall market sentiment is much more optimistic than last year.。

The most intuitive market sentiment is reflected in the stock market.。In the first half of the year, the S & P 500 rose 16% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 39%, the best first half on record.。AI-related stocks in the Nasdaq performed very well.。Microsoft's shares rose 41%, and shares of Nvidia, which supplies AI chips, almost tripled.。

     

The long-term impact of AI on employment remains unclear

     

At a time when the market is "partying" for AI, there are also some concerns, especially about the impact of AI on employment.。

According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, AI is now able to generate content that is similar to what humans create, and it can also break down communication barriers between humans and machines.。If generative AI can deliver on its promised capabilities, the labor market will face a "major shock."。

Goldman Sachs's analysis of U.S. and European jobs predicts that about two-thirds of jobs in Europe and the United States will be more or less affected by AI automation trends, and up to a quarter of jobs may eventually be replaced by AI.。According to the report, globally, considering the relatively small number of jobs affected by AI in emerging markets, it is estimated that 18% of global jobs can be automated by AI, and about 300 million jobs will be affected.。

But throughout history, technological advances, while causing job losses, have also created new jobs.。In addition, AI technology will also significantly increase productivity。The Goldman Sachs report predicts that global GDP will increase by 7% a year over the next decade.。However, Goldman Sachs also expects that there may be some risk factors that limit the upside。In addition to the unpredictable future of artificial intelligence, governments may also restrict the technology.。

The IMF has also issued warnings.。The IMF's first vice president, Gita Gopinath, said generative AI would "severely disrupt the labor market" and called on policymakers to quickly develop regulations governing the technology.。

Mr Gopinath said: "We need governments, we need institutions and we need policymakers to act quickly on all fronts, both in terms of regulation and to be prepared for the potential for substantial disruption in the labour market.。"