On June 8, local time, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 3。According to the data, initial U.S. jobless claims for the week ending June 3 were 26.10,000, compared with 23 the previous week..30,000 increased by 2.80,000 jobless claims rose to highest level since October 2021。The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose 7,500 to 237,250.。

Mismatch effect only marginal improvement U.S. labor market recovery into a bottleneck

Recently, the U.S. employment data has been quite bright.。According to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May released last week, the number of new non-farm payrolls under CES (Business Survey) statistics is quite strong, at 33.90,000, significantly exceeding expectations 19.50,000 and previous value 29.40,000, which was recorded in April when the data was significantly revised up。After the release of the data, the market once expressed concern about the outlook for U.S. inflation governance, superimposed on a series of previous data on the resilience of U.S. employment assessment, the price of gold from the high plunged nearly $40, below the 1950 level, while the dollar index rose nearly 0.5%, the biggest one-day gain since mid-May。

In fact, the number of initial requests this time has been cold and not without a trace.。On the one hand, the unemployment rate, according to the CPS (Household Survey) caliber survey, is at its lowest point in 50 years 3.4% Unexpected recovery to 3.7%, breaking the three-straight downward trend since February this year and recording the highest level since October 2022。On the other hand, U.S. wages cooled slightly in May from the same month last year.。Among them, the average hourly wage in the United States in May increased by 4.3%, lower than the expected value and the previous value 4.4%; month-on-month growth of 0.3%, also lower than the expected value of 0.3% and previous value 0.4%。

In addition, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, JOLTs job openings in April reached 1010.30,000, more than economists expected。But the ratio of unemployed to open jobs rose to 1 in April, according to JOLTS data..8, reaching the highest level in 3 months, while the normal level before the epidemic was 1.2。

Looking at it this way, while the labor market may still be one of the healthiest parts of the U.S. economy, this initial request from last night also seems to reflect the mismatch between supply and demand in that market.。On the one hand, the number of job openings in the United States has reached its highest level since February this year;。It can be said that the labor market recovery in the United States has gradually entered a bottleneck period.。

"Bad news is good news."  S & P 500 Enters Technical Bull Market

From a monetary policy perspective, with less than a week to go before the Fed's June policy meeting, officials have entered a regular quiet period。According to previous information, while the vote committees disagree on monetary policy, the emphasis on data is unprecedentedly consistent。So this initial request data, released last night, is bound to attract the attention of policymakers, because it is also the last important data released by the relevant agencies before the meeting.。

It is worth noting that during the policy meeting, the U.S. Department of Labor will also release May CPI data, which is also expected to have an important impact on the meeting trend for the Federal Reserve, which is currently particularly sensitive to inflation data.。

With the addition of "bad news is good news," last night's initial request data undoubtedly boosted the market's confidence in the Fed's suspension of rate hikes at its June policy meeting, and even hit the hawkish argument that the Fed will restart rate hikes in July.。As of last night's close, the Dow was up 0.5% to 33833.61 points, recording third straight day of gains; Nasdaq up 1.02% reported 13238.52 points; while the S & P 500 is up 0.62% to 4293.93 points, up more than 20% from last October's low, into a technical bull market in one fell swoop, and the index's last bull market started back in March 2020.。

At the time, the S & P 500 was up 114 in 21 months, according to public data..4%, known as the "shortest bull market" since 1932, and the end of the "bear market" lasted only about nine months, a cumulative decline of about 25%, has been quite moderate.。

In precious metals, spot gold prices were also boosted, rising 1 in the day..3%, the best one-day performance since May 2, corresponding to a weaker dollar, which fell 0% yesterday.76%, recording its worst one-day performance since March 13。

The U.S. Department of Labor notes that the labor market, while largely resilient, is beginning to show signs of cooling。The department also revealed that the U.S. announced more layoffs in the first five months of this year than in all of last year, mainly in white-collar industries such as technology and banking, and economists expect more layoffs this year。

In fact, many technology companies have indeed started a new wave of layoffs, including well-known companies such as IBM, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Twitter.。Separately, Amazon and Facebook parent Meta have each announced two rounds of layoffs since November.。The reason is that some companies blame it on "over-recruitment during the epidemic."。

The wave of layoffs in the banking system has also been tragic.。Up to now, there have been Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Standard Chartered and many other well-known big banks spread the news of layoffs, the storm has gradually spread from Europe and the United States to Asia。Just yesterday, it was announced that Citigroup would also disband its foreign exchange strategy team at CitiFX and cut some of its positions。It is reported that due to the U.S. IPO market in 2022 cold, U.S. investment banks suffered a precipitous decline in revenue last year。

However, in this case, there are also analysts who are skeptical of this preliminary report, because last week's statistics are likely to be disturbed by the three-day Memorial Day weekend time。According to Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. analyst at Santander, the data reflects exactly a work cycle shortened by Memorial Day, and such a big change in the data raises the suspicion that the change is more of a noise than a signal.。

He also said he wants to see next week's data before making any conclusions。

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