According to online reports, China International Capital Corporation Research believes that considering two scenarios, one is the lack of substantial progress in negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. After 90 days, the effective tariff rate in the United States is still very high. At this time, the income effect dominates and economic demand weakens. Or prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates starting in July, and the cumulative rate of interest rates throughout the year may reach 100 basis points. The other situation is that the negotiations have achieved results, with tariffs reduced, and the demand shock led by the substitution effect is relatively mild, but inflationary pressures are more persistent. The Federal Reserve may delay the pace of easing and only cut interest rates slightly once in December throughout the year. For the market, although monetary easing came earlier in the first scenario, this "recession-style" interest rate cut reflects the deterioration of economic fundamentals and will instead suppress risky assets. (Jin Shi)